January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[Kingwood36]

12z GFS moves the really cold stuff east.

Doesn't it ALWAYS...

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of model volatility over the next week.

Regarding the severe threat, our neighbors in N Central/NE Texas and NW Louisiana appear to have the greatest chance of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SE Texas folks do need to stay weather aware tonight as well as our neighbors further East early tomorrow morning and throughout Saturday.

Yep, outside 7 days, the Operational is simply another run that can be lumped into the ensembles. The ingredients are all there upstream, especially as they are progressing from Okhotsk to Alaska to our MJO favored areas.

As for today, I'm very concerned for my hometown of Longview as they are under the gun. Luckily, my parents have an underground closet in their garage. As for Houston, we aren't out of the woods, and these type of systems have a tendency to surprise those not expecting the worst.

I saw a funnel cloud trying to form north of town. It's pretty easy to see the shear in the atmosphere as cloud of slightly different altitude are criss-crossing.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS moves the really cold stuff east.

Doesn't it ALWAYS...

haha Boy, that's the truth!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ensembles bring light freezes to B/CS. No freeze in HOU. Euro is colder than before, but also pushes cold east. Solutions are narrowing.

I'm not talking about next weekend... I'm talking about the last two weeks of January into February. The stars are aligning upstream for a major pattern shift to a true backend winter.

[Cpv17]

For whatever reason, the Euro is bottling up all the cold air in Canada. No mechanism to push it south.

[CrashTestDummy]

For whatever reason, the Euro is bottling up all the cold air in Canada. No mechanism to push it south.

Sweet!

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the North

[Cromagnum]

The atmosphere feels pretty angry down here, even if we aren't on the bullseye.

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch likely within the hour for our Central Texas neighbors

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for Central Texas

[Kingwood36]

That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?

[Cpv17]

That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?

Yes it is and discrete supercells that form ahead of it.

[Cpv17]

What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.

[don]

The latest 18z NAM doesn't weaken the line.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11018&fh=6

[srainhoutx]

Severe Weather Update from Jeff:

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for SC TX until 1000pm.

Strong forcing associated with a powerful incoming upper level trough and cold front is resulting in the formation of a line of strong storms west of I-35. This line of storms will continue to increase and grow into a solid line as is moves eastward this evening. This line will reach the western portions of SE TX (Columbus to College Station) around early to mid evening and into the central portions of the area (Houston) around 1000pm to midnight. Strong winds…some damaging will be possible with this line. While wind damage and isolated tornadoes are possible, not everyone is going to see wind damage. The greatest threat for damaging winds continues to be roughly north of I-10 and most likely north of HWY 105

An additional weather watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado) will likely be required for SE TX by early evening.

[harp]

The GFS seems to be trending warmer and warmer... arghhh!!! It had been getting colder and colder.... the pendulum swings....

[Andrew]

What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.

The HRRR shows a stronger cap compared to the NAM/GFS. Looking at the sounding A&M put out at 21z, whatever fires will definitely have the potential for strong storms.

[Cpv17]

The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

[Seantx81]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

[Ptarmigan]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

So very true.