MAY 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Need to monitor those storms near Waco for possible activity in the SE Texas area this afternoon around rush hour...
05272020 mcd0739.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271708Z - 271915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
Edwards Plateau vicinity. However, further increase and
intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
corridor through 19-21Z. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
mid-level low. This appears to have been supported by relatively
weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
Metroplex. And model output has indicated a greater convective
signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
during the 19-21Z time frame.

However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon. Increasing
southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
hours. This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system with potential for
producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
corridor.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
cperk
Posts: 817
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:31 pm Worth reading from the overnight AFD from NWS HGX:
Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond
240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the
GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE.
PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of
year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the
western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended
range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it
happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about
the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep
breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just
the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more.
Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is
almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being
prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as
a matter of course.

Well said.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:32 pm Need to monitor those storms near Waco for possible activity in the SE Texas area this afternoon around rush hour...

05272020 mcd0739.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271708Z - 271915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
Edwards Plateau vicinity. However, further increase and
intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
corridor through 19-21Z. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
mid-level low. This appears to have been supported by relatively
weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
Metroplex. And model output has indicated a greater convective
signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
during the 19-21Z time frame.

However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon. Increasing
southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
hours. This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system with potential for
producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
corridor.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
Yep - have had an eye on these to explode. We really need some action (heavy rain) before the spigot is turned off tomorrow.

Once the spigot is off, it's pot luck whether things turn on again in the Brazos Valley during meteorological summer. I see a model with a ridge building in June (instead of waiting for July, August). Not good.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Those storms up north are moving at a fast clip. We may get a decent storm out of it but probably not a whole lot of rain unless they either slow-down or expand into an MCS (which may happen).
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

That cell heading down Hwy 6 and approaching Marlin, then Hearne is looking pretty potent. Baseball size hail associated with the cell.

Need to be careful what I wish for on the weather pleasure/pain axis...but this is one to tracking during the course of the afternoon.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F2078.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F36BCTX.FWDSVSFWD.12d87e6372d89fe9751097e1a3d24750 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 13:15 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MCLENNAN...SOUTHWESTERN LIMESTONE AND FALLS COUNTIES...

At 1257 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near McGregor to Hewitt, moving southeast at 40 mph.
These are very dangerous storms.
HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
siding, and vehicles.
Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Bellmead, Woodway, Lacy-Lakeview, Marlin,
McGregor, Mart, Beverly Hills, Lorena, Bruceville-Eddy, Rosebud,
Riesel, Lott, Golinda, Hallsburg, Northcrest and Kosse.
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
Instructions: These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail and damaging winds capable of producing significant damage...especially near Marlin! Move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth.
Target Area:
Falls
Limestone
McLennan


Image
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted until 9:00 PM
Attachments
EZC02SUU8AARo2s.jpeg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Some new development on the eastern flank closer to 45. I may be getting something out of this.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

It appears that a MCS is developing.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Nasty cell just a few miles north of us.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F5D68.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F6984TX.HGXSVSHGX.aa6594a67f19803f1434be488bb2eb20 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 14:45 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES...

At 214 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Franklin to 9 miles southeast of Cameron, moving
southeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle
Field, Wellborn, Deanville and Chriesman.
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

mcd0744.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

Valid 271933Z - 272100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.

SUMMARY...Potentially damaging wind gusts and severe hail will
accompany an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms
spreading into the mid/upper Texas coastal plain, including the
Greater Houston metropolitan area, between 4-5 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development is being maintained,
with thunderstorms clustering near a sub-synoptic surface low in the
vicinity of College Station. Aided by at least modest southeasterly
inflow of moist air (characterized by CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) into
updrafts, considerable further intensification and organization seem
probable as activity propagates southeastward into Greater Houston
and areas to the southwest through 21-22Z. Accompanied by a
strengthening surface cold pool and rear inflow, the risk for
potential damaging wind gusts is expected to increase further, in
addition to a continuing risk for severe hail..

..Kerr.. 05/27/2020
dp6
Posts: 113
Joined: Sun May 24, 2020 5:32 pm
Contact:

About to get pounded here on Lake Conroe, but there's a really intense cell out between Somerville and the Brazos.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2411
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Snook is getting obliterated by hail.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Well things tried to get going towards west-central Montgomery County (upstream from me) and it fizzled. I’m in a crescent of nothing. Typical, but I’m keeping an eye further NW from there.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 3:06 pm Snook is getting obliterated by hail.
We dodge a bullet. I rushed to put the van in the garage.
javakah
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:20 pm
Location: Fulshear
Contact:

Looking like a couplet forming.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Starting to think that even with the fast movement there may be some street flooding in urban areas due to high rainfall rates right in time for rush hour unfortunately.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC015-041-185-201-339-473-477-272100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0089.200527T2008Z-200527T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
308 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Western Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 308 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northeast of Anderson to near Navasota to
near Brenham, moving southeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Brenham, Tomball, Navasota, Hempstead, Prairie View,
Brookshire, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Washington, Hockley, Oak
Ridge North, Waller, Panorama Village, Shenandoah, Magnolia, Cut
And Shoot, Pine Island, Montgomery and Stagecoach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.


&&
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
East central Washington County in southeastern Texas...
West central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 318 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Washington, or 9 miles south of Navasota, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Hempstead, Prairie View, Pinehurst, Hockley, Waller, Magnolia, Pine
Island, Stagecoach and Todd Mission.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 9622 3035 9610 3021 9565 2997 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 308DEG 42KT 3025 9608

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Well a tornado warning to the west. And that storm is moving more east, than SE like the complex coming down Hwy. 6. Gonna be an interesting couple of hours.

They should have left my rain chances at 60% :-/
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 57 guests