July 2020

[sau27]

I feel like I need to shower after posing about a 240 hr forecast though haha.

[txbear]

WRF seems to align with the flood watch issuance, with a pretty decent gradient basically beginning west of Galveston Bay and along and south of 59. Looks to be catching on to the decent rains coming through the Beaumont area, too.

Looking at the radar, seems like the core of Hanna is really starting to intensify recently.

[srainhoutx]

I posted in the August Topic that 92L has been designated for the tropical disturbance off the West Africa Coast.

[TxLady]

Getting a nice little shower, here. It's been partly cloudy all morning...and, should I mention the humidity?

[mcheer23]

Hurricane warnings have been issued

[jasons2k]

It’s either a wobble or Hanna has started the curve to the WSW, just as she approaches the longitude of Galveston. It’s Lucy waving at us saying “just kidding, maybe next time”...

[Rip76]

It’s either a wobble or Hanna has started the curve to the WSW, just as she approaches the longitude of Galveston. It’s Lucy waving at us saying “just kidding, maybe next time”...

Haha, totally. "And I left some dry air for ya."

[Rip76]

Hurricane warnings have been issued

You have a link?
I didn't see it on the NHC website.

[Kingwood36]

With the shear now relaxed shouldnt she start to build convection on her north side?

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)

Tropical Storm Hanna looking a bit better on satellite and this
system is heading toward the Texas Coastal Bend possibly making
landfall on Saturday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning remains
in effect for Jackson, Matagorda and coastal Brazoria counties,
Matagorda Bay and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters. Moisture on
the east and north side of this feature will be pulled into SE TX
as Hanna treks west. PW values are progged to reach 2.60 inches
across SE TX tonight and Saturday. The storm motion will be quick
but if banding develops, there will be some potential for some
heavy rainfall amounts. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
through 12z Sunday for mainly the southern and coastal sections of
SE TX, roughly south and east of a Morales to Simonton to Alvin
to Rollover Pass line. Still looking like widespread 2 to 4
inches of rain in the Watch area with locally higher amounts. As
these rain bands move toward the Upper Texas Coast, there will
also be some potential for weak tornadoes and waterspouts. In
addition, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas along
the immediate coast from Sargent to Port O Connor with elevated
waters of 1-3 feet. A weak trough of low pressure will develop
to the east of Hanna on Saturday night and this feature will serve
as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms with the
higher rain chances near the coast. 43

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

The trough will linger across the Gulf coast on Sunday and
Monday. The trough coupled with PW values around 2.60 inches and
some upper level dynamics will produce a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday. The FFA is currently set to expire at
12z Sunday and the Watch may need to be extended over parts of the
area through Sunday afternoon. The trough weakens a bit on Monday
and PW values drop to around 2.40 inches so diurnally driven
showers and storms will again be possible on Monday.

A mid latitude trough will move across the southern Great lakes
will move east on Tuesday reinforcing the weakness over SE TX. So
despite PW values decreasing to around 2.20 inches, the weakness
aloft coupled with heating will allow for additional and mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level ridging will develop over the Southern Rockies on
Thursday and amplify and expand into Texas on Friday. A warming
and drying trend will develop toward the end of the week with
temperatures warming back up into the mid and upper 90`s. 43

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Hanna was located over the west central Gulf of
Mexico and will continue to move west. Strong E-NE winds will
persist as Hanna treks toward the coast. A Tropical Storm Warning
is in effect for Matagorda Bay and the Gulf waters with the
strongest winds south of a PSX to Buoy 019 line. Winds tonight
could gust in excess of 50 knots at times, especially over the
southern half of the marine zones. Coastal flooding will be
possible as waters levels could rise 1 to 3 feet higher than
normal. Seas could get as high as 14 feet in the southern waters
later tonight. Moderate to strong onshore winds will persist into
Sunday evening as the gradient remains tight in the wake of Hanna.
Winds will veer to the south on Monday and decrease as the
gradient relaxes. The gradient will tighten again as low pressure
develops in the panhandle and a stronger onshore flow is expected
Thursday and Thursday night. 43


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 91 76 87 75 / 30 70 30 70 30
Houston (IAH) 78 88 77 85 76 / 60 70 50 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 87 82 85 81 / 70 90 80 90 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for the
following zones: Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

CAR
CADY
FOWLER
KAMMEN

[Rip76]

Any storms moving into Houston are just getting crushed.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/128 ... 9538376704

[davidiowx]

Any storms moving into Houston are just getting crushed.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/128 ... 9538376704

Yeah that’s unfortunate. All we can hope is it starts to moisten over night and these rain bands can spin in and drop a few inches across the area. That would be ideal!

[DoctorMu]

liquid Gold coming in from the East.

Just had the outer band go through. Brisk tropical winds and sideways rain. Ahhh! Probably not much in rainfall, but will take anything we can get up here in CLL

[djmike]

With the shear now relaxed shouldnt she start to build convection on her north side?

Thats what im wondering. We are getting anything now and everything that looks like its gonna approach vanishes.

[Kingwood36]

With the shear now relaxed shouldnt she start to build convection on her north side?

Thats what im wondering. We are getting anything now and everything that looks like its gonna approach vanishes.

I'm getting some good wind and alot of thunder in freeport and every so often a shower will blow through for about 2 mins then stop

[unome]

NOAA Tides & Currents - Inundation Dashboard for Hanna

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... Hanna.html

[davidiowx]

Just had an intense boom of thunder here in Richmond. Had a few showers earlier but they move quick. One thing is for sure, these streamer storms can pack a punch. Even though they are flying by us. If training were to set up somewhere, there could be some flooding issues. Tonight will be interesting

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242308
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
intermittent bouts of showers will likely continue as Hanna moves
toward the Texas Coastal Bend. Will just carry a VCSH tonight and
will try to amend with a TEMPO if time allows, but timing
when/where precip develops is tough. looks like a slightly better
potential for thunder will exist on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will become gusty as well. A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs are expected for
the next 30 hours. 43

[Kingwood36]

Board is awfully quiet considering what's on our door step

[Cpv17]

Board is awfully quiet considering what's on our door step

Yeah I’m not all that excited about it. I’m more interested in 92L.