August 2020:

[Rip76]

Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.

I’m in on this solution

[sau27]

12z Euro gets awfully close to doing the Fujiwhara dance.

[Kingwood36]

Stupid question but could these merge?

[TexasBreeze]

The NHC sure does have their work cut out for them this forecast cycle for sure.

[Scott747]

There could be a modest shift w for 14 with the next package and an even much larger shift w with Laura. Probably not enough to put the outer fringes of the upper Texas coast in the cone, but could get close.

[snowman65]

these models runs are insanely all over the place. How are people supposed to plan ahead? lol

[tireman4]

Be patient. Be vigilant.

[Scott747]

Not totally unexpected with the operational shift but the majority of GFS and para ensembles have shifted towards the Western Gulf with Laura.

[Andrew]

I'm beginning to wonder if the CMC is not the most reliable tropical model now

[DoctorMu]

Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.

I'm expecting the track to settle in between Freeport and Rockport.

[Cromagnum]

Just teasing me with rain. Nice storm just a couple miles to my south...and its headed away from me.

[Stormlover2020]

So 14 goes to corpus ridges doesn’t break because it doesn’t feel trough and Lauren is more south and rides ridge? Is that what it’s thinking ?

[Cromagnum]

these models runs are insanely all over the place. How are people supposed to plan ahead? lol

You can't. Modern predictions seem to be far worse, and the media hyping things doesn't help.

[sau27]

Stupid question but could these merge?

No, they won’t merge. If they get close enough to each other it will cause the Fujiwhara effect which causes vorticies in close proximity to spin around each other. But given the relatively confined space of the gulf and the strength of the storms if they get too close they likely won’t be able to really loop around and will start to shear each other. If anything one will make landfall and slightly delay the landfall of the other.

[DoctorMu]

HWRF has Laura as a CAT 5 in the GoM.

[jasons2k]

these models runs are insanely all over the place. How are people supposed to plan ahead? lol

That's why we have the cone. If you are in the cone, plan as if a storm is threatening your area, and it's always good to plan for a storm that's a category higher than what's forecast.

[DoctorMu]

these models runs are insanely all over the place. How are people supposed to plan ahead? lol

That's why we have the cone. If you are in the cone, plan as if a storm is threatening your area, and it's always good to plan for a storm that's a category higher than what's forecast.

Michael is a perfect example.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff will be hosting a Facebook Live for those interested and follow him. Scheduled for 3 PM CDT

Jeff rescheduled to 4:30 PM

[Stormlover2020]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_13.gif

Some 18z runs for Lauren

[snowman65]

So the GFS shows 14 at bville and Laura going to Galveston.....plausable??