August 2020:

[don]

Lol these models... 18z GFS shows Marco as a naked swirl riding the Louisiana coast into southeast Texas similar to last nights EURO run.

[Scott747]

The GFS also has Laura tracking further w thru hr 90. Looking closer to central or w la.

[Stormlover2020]

I have a feeling this will be a close close call

[cperk]

I have a feeling this will be a close close call

Yeah I don’t think we’re clear of Laura.

[DoctorMu]

Yes. A weaker storm would go more west.

I dont understand this. If there is a high pressure system to the east, why would a weaker storm go more west? I always thought stronger storms get pushed by ridges more than weak ones

Stronger storms are more influenced by the steering currents than weaker ones. They’re basically a lot more sensitive and can feel ridges/troughs from miles upon miles away. Something like that.

Yep - Stronger storms have high pressure overhead, which bounces or feels it's way around ridges and towards troughs. A weak, sheared off system is more affected by lower altitude winds.

Having said that, I would not place my bets yet either either Marco or Laura yet.

[Tx2005]

When is Laura expected to clear Cuba? I imagine it’s going to be hard to get a good read on Laura’s track until then.

[Andrew]

When is Laura expected to clear Cuba? I imagine it’s going to be hard to get a good read on Laura’s track until then.

Monday afternoon.


Looks like the GFS 18z run shifted west some.

[DoctorMu]

Wow. I haven’t seen a shift like that in a very long time. Any bets after all this, we don’t get a drop of rain from either system?

Marco is still projected to turn west after landfall. Have not given up yet, although a bust is probable.

If Marco turns 100 miles earlier, we all could get very wet.

...and on cue, there's the GFS shift.

[DoctorMu]

18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.

A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...

[tireman4]

18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.

A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...

A chuckle before my 6 mile run. Thanks as always to the good Doctor in the house.

[Cpv17]

I don’t think we’re out of the clear for either system. I don’t really think the models have a good handle on either of these systems.

[djjordan]

18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.

A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...

LOL That's the best analogy I've heard about the models in a long long time. These models have been terrible all year so I'm going to keep watching just like everyone should be.

[tireman4]

European 18 Z Laura

[Kingwood36]

European 18 Z Laura

Well that's intriguing

[Stormlover2020]

That was yesterday’s

[jerryh421]

European 18 Z Laura

This is from yesterday’s run! Has today’s started yet?

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t be surprised to even see a possible wsw movement with Marco as it nears the coast of Louisiana.

[Stormlover2020]

Hmon cat 5 headed to Galveston

[Tx2005]

I believe these are from 12z today.

[Tx2005]

Hmon cat 5 headed to Galveston

If I remember correctly, the hmon has been up and down the Texas coast over the past few runs. It had a Galveston hit at 0z, middle tx coast at 6z, and tx/mex border at 12z.