August 2020:

[DoctorMu]

I know it’s the nam but we are getting to that 3-4 day range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=-3

A bit more southerly Cuba solution. We will see if the other models make the same adjustment today.

[DoctorMu]

Doomsday scenario if this pans out. Starting to get concerned that more than a few models show a very strong storm forming and shifts west keep happening.

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisnunley/ ... 5944313858

Ike.

[snowman65]

I'm assuming it could keep moving W as we get closer?

[DoctorMu]

I know it’s the nam but we are getting to that 3-4 day range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=-3

A bit more southerly Cuba solution. We will see if the other models make the same adjustment today.

and on cue. Possibly another slight adjustment at 1 pm CT.

[Scott747]

ICON looked to have initialized correctly though looking at gitmo radar it still may be a little more to the s and w.

[Scott747]

Next forecast track won't come out until the 4 pm package....

[cperk]

The NHC is being cautious not to make any large adjustments west and i don't blame them they got burned yesterday by the models on Marco.They in fact mentioned that this morning in their 5am discussion.

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure how much further they will adjust the track west. I kinda think models are really honing in now around the TX/LA border.

[Scott747]

The 6z operational Euro shifted back to the e and the border, but that was with the center on the north coast of Haiti. Extrapolated out from the new forecast point would put it back towards High Island.

[weatherguy425]

I’m not sure how much further they will adjust the track west. I kinda think models are really honing in now around the TX/LA border.

Careful. We need to view the entire picture (operational + ensemble) along with what is happening now. If anything, “center” is still running a touch south of forecast and may stay on the southern coast of Cuba - core may remain intact and a stronger system than forecast may enter Gulf. A stronger system may feel building heights in the northeast Gulf more easily; trending westward.

This is not certain. But, it is way, WAY too soon to be sold on any one spot.

[Cpv17]

ICON shifted east following the 06z Euro.

[weatherguy425]

The 6z operational Euro shifted back to the e and the border, but that was with the center on the north coast of Haiti. Extrapolated out from the new forecast point would put it back towards High Island.

And ensemble package remains lower Texas Coast to SE Louisiana coast. Stronger storm? Further south and west.

[Cromagnum]

The 6z operational Euro shifted back to the e and the border, but that was with the center on the north coast of Haiti. Extrapolated out from the new forecast point would put it back towards High Island.

And ensemble package remains lower Texas Coast to SE Louisiana coast. Stronger storm? Further south and west.

So why is that true for Laura and not Marco?

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure how much further they will adjust the track west. I kinda think models are really honing in now around the TX/LA border.

Careful. We need to view the entire picture (operational + ensemble) along with what is happening now. If anything, “center” is still running a touch south of forecast and may stay on the southern coast of Cuba - core may remain intact and a stronger system than forecast may enter Gulf. A stronger system may feel building heights in the northeast Gulf more easily; trending westward.

This is not certain. But, it is way, WAY too soon to be sold on any one spot.

I think Galveston to Vermilion Bay is the main target zone right now with TX/LA border near the center of that.

[Cpv17]

The 6z operational Euro shifted back to the e and the border, but that was with the center on the north coast of Haiti. Extrapolated out from the new forecast point would put it back towards High Island.

And ensemble package remains lower Texas Coast to SE Louisiana coast. Stronger storm? Further south and west.

So why is that true for Laura and not Marco?

The high will be building in and the trough will be out of the picture by the time Laura will be in the Gulf. Two totally different steering currents.

[Scott747]

Well so much for the 12z GFS. It initialized on the n end of Haiti

[Kingwood36]

Well so much for the 12z GFS. It initialized on the n end of Haiti

Will that be thrown out?

[Scott747]

Well so much for the 12z GFS. It initialized on the n end of Haiti

Will that be thrown out?

No. Just something to keep in mind.

[DoctorMu]

I’m not sure how much further they will adjust the track west. I kinda think models are really honing in now around the TX/LA border.

Careful. We need to view the entire picture (operational + ensemble) along with what is happening now. If anything, “center” is still running a touch south of forecast and may stay on the southern coast of Cuba - core may remain intact and a stronger system than forecast may enter Gulf. A stronger system may feel building heights in the northeast Gulf more easily; trending westward.

This is not certain. But, it is way, WAY too soon to be sold on any one spot.

The last 24 hours are a lesson about initial conditions. When they aren't correct, the iterations on the models are prone to chaos theory and the butterfly effect. We should see a regression to the new mean (whatever that is) during the course of the day. Hang on.

[Cpv17]

Wow. The 12z GFS sends Marco towards Texas. Not much left of it though but it does have it staying out over water instead of moving inland into LA. Crazy!