August 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

Question is what will the NHC do with the 12Z Euro run.

They will acknowledge it in the next disco and give their reasoning if it has merits. One key is if the forecast for Marco changes.

Scott, I’m lost for words, what is going on

[srainhoutx]

Patience folks. I suspect once RECON is able to make center passes for Laura again, the guidance may become a bit better. I don't expect any significant changes from the NHC before additional data concretely supports making radical changes.

[Scott747]

Question is what will the NHC do with the 12Z Euro run.

They will acknowledge it in the next disco and give their reasoning if it has merits. One key is if the forecast for Marco changes.

Scott, I’m lost for words, what is going on

As Levi mentioned the interaction with the rememants of Marco. It can't be immediately dismissed though it seems like a least likely outcome. I mean the Euro isn't even handling Marco correctly right now.

Again almost no doubt that in the 4 pm disco they will give their interpretation of the Euro run.

[Rip76]

Patience folks. I suspect once RECON is able to make center passes for Laura again, the guidance may become a bit better. I don't expect any significant changes from the NHC before additional data concretely supports making radical changes.

Is recon running now?

[cperk]

Patience folks. I suspect once RECON is able to make center passes for Laura again, the guidance may become a bit better. I don't expect any significant changes from the NHC before additional data concretely supports making radical changes.

Yeah I think that euro run sent us over the edge.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is enroute from Mississippi. Last launch from Keesler until the Hurricanes pass. Aircrafts/crews are being relocated to Charleston, SC.

[Belmer]

As others have stated, I don't think Euro is handling the setup well as it pertains to Marco and of course initializing Laura wrong. Doubtful the NHC will adjust their forecast cone much during the 5pm advisory. If they do, maybe a hair east to account for the blend of the CMC, GFS and Euro.

Seems like 00z runs like west and 12z runs like east. Definitely seen that before...

[Scott747]

Patience folks. I suspect once RECON is able to make center passes for Laura again, the guidance may become a bit better. I don't expect any significant changes from the NHC before additional data concretely supports making radical changes.

Is recon running now?

Yes. Not sure they can get a fix being so close to Cuban airspace.

[weatherguy425]

Radar data is coming in Clutch!

[srainhoutx]

Also they are throwing everything at Luara, aircraft wise. G-IV synoptic missions scheduled tonight and tomorrow evening. P3W's will also fly at least 2 additional synoptic missions. Aircraft will be flying almost continuously starting tomorrow including AF C-130 's.

[srainhoutx]

RECON descending into Laura

[DoctorMu]

Also they are throwing everything at Luara, aircraft wise. G-IV synoptic missions scheduled tonight and tomorrow evening. P3W's will also fly at least 2 additional synoptic missions. Aircraft will be flying almost continuously starting tomorrow including AF C-130 's.

Here's today's NHC plan for RECON on Laura and Marco:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[weatherguy425]

Looking deeper into it, that really wasn’t a good ECMWF initialization all-around. It also initialized MARCO at a disorganized 1005 MB, not the actual 993 MB.

[Rip76]

Also they are throwing everything at Luara, aircraft wise. G-IV synoptic missions scheduled tonight and tomorrow evening. P3W's will also fly at least 2 additional synoptic missions. Aircraft will be flying almost continuously starting tomorrow including AF C-130 's.

Awesome!

[weatherguy425]

18z Track Guidance for Laura & Marco -

[Texashawk]

18z Track Guidance for Laura & Marco -

Ok, I am so damn confused now. Is Marco going to hit LA or just swing left and hit us?

[Rip76]

Wow Marco

[weatherguy425]

18z Track Guidance for Laura & Marco -

Ok, I am so damn confused now. Is Marco going to hit LA or just swing left and hit us?

A westward movement before landfall also implies a MUCH weaker, almost nonexistent storm (Marco). If it takes a west turn it won’t - at all - be in the state it is in now.

[Kingwood36]

Unreal what marco is doing..

[sau27]

12z Euro ensemble is the same story. Weaker members further east stronger members into Texas.