August 2020:

[Cpv17]

HMON and HWRF have landfall in the same exact spot.

[Scott747]

HWRF is at Bolivar to High Island as a strong 4 on Thursday.

[weatherguy425]

HMON and HWRF have landfall in the same exact spot.

Yes, this cycle. If we saw this consistency for a multiple model cycles in a row, we could consider it more of a consensus. It’s important to look at cumulative cycles. Even if models are consistent within one cycle, it doesn’t always mean they’ll remain consistent over time/cycles. There continues to be big shifts cycle to cycle.

[DoctorMu]

We'll know a lot more after Laura clears Cuba, but at least the models have data to work with and the initial conditions appear to be a lot more accurate...

[snowman65]

Just keep her away from me.....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232346
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR for all terminals, with northeast winds becoming light/vrb
this evening, and increasing again tomorrow, reaching around 10
knots for the afternoon (with a slight veer from more
northeasterly to more easterly through the day). Like today,
should see some isolated diurnal showers/storms. Only enough
confidence for VCs at LBX and GLS, though there is a non-zero shot
everywhere.

[Cpv17]

Just keep her away from me.....

Well you’re just about right in the middle of the cone right now.

[Stormlover2020]

I mean I just don’t know what the euro is doing

[vci_guy2003]

What is the Euro showing?

[cperk]

What is the Euro showing?

New Orleans according to a graphic posted on s2k.

[weatherguy425]

What is the Euro showing?

New Orleans according to a graphic posted on s2k.

Probably the 12Z?

[Stormlover2020]

What is the Euro showing?

New Orleans according to a graphic posted on s2k.

Probably the 12Z?

What is going on with the euro

[Cpv17]

What is the Euro showing?

New Orleans according to a graphic posted on s2k.

Probably the 12Z?

18z has it going towards NOLA too, I believe.

[DoctorMu]

NHC cones haven't really changed at 7/8 pm since this afternoon. They are taking a knee until there is model and ensemble clarity...and Laura clears Cuba.

[Seantx81]

I mean I just don’t know what the euro is doing

I’m wondering if you’re referring to what they recently showed on TWC. If so, Marco dancing around off shore of Texas isn’t even funny. I saw it on there and was like WTF is this!

[snowman65]

New Orleans according to a graphic posted on s2k.

Probably the 12Z?

18z has it going towards NOLA too, I believe.

18z ICON is right there also

[Tx2005]

I wonder when they are going to call for evacuations. I know there is still tons of uncertainty but we are only a few days out. What a mess.

[Seantx81]

Someone asked earlier about storm shutters. I don’t know the right answer but my neighbor put almost all of his second floor shutters on today. I’m going to get mine out of the shed tomorrow and get them ready to possibly install on Tuesday.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Probably the 12Z?

18z has it going towards NOLA too, I believe.

18z ICON is right there also

ICON makes landfall between Morgan City and New Iberia

[Kingwood36]

Looks like they are shifting back east.....imagine that