August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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HurricaneMike wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:10 pm GFS has shifted Northeast a bit.
Where was gfs before?
Mike
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HurricaneMike
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djmike wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:14 pm
HurricaneMike wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:10 pm GFS has shifted Northeast a bit.
Where was gfs before?
The new 00Z GFS is ever so slightly east of the 18Z and a little weaker. Still shows an intense hurricane landfall in the Cameron, LA area.
Kingwood36
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Is it a safe bet to say until she gets away from Cuba the models won't get a good grasp of the situation
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jasons2k
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sambucol wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:11 pm Did the gfs initialize too far north on this run?
Yes...Again...
TXWeatherMan
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:16 pm Is it a safe bet to say until she gets away from Cuba the models won't get a good grasp of the situation
Yes
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sambucol
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:17 pm
sambucol wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:11 pm Did the gfs initialize too far north on this run?
Yes...Again...
Why is this happening?
HurricaneMike
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I must say, I'm very impressed with Laura's continued organization in the face of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. The upper-level divergence over the top of Laura is insane.
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srainhoutx
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Ukmet into Matagorda this run.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sambucol
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 pm Ukmet into Matagorda this run.
Did this one initialize correctly?
Kingwood36
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Looks like a long night of model watching 👀
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sambucol
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:28 pm Looks like a long night of model watching 👀
Yes it does.
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srainhoutx
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sambucol wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:27 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 pm Ukmet into Matagorda this run.
Did this one initialize correctly?
Fairly close...within a margin of error. Landfall at 948mb. That's Major territory.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:30 pm
sambucol wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:27 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 pm Ukmet into Matagorda this run.
Did this one initialize correctly?
Fairly close...within a margin of error. Landfall at 948mb. That's Major territory.
The UKMET has also done the best with Laura, so far.
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:30 pm
sambucol wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:27 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 pm Ukmet into Matagorda this run.
Did this one initialize correctly?
Fairly close...within a margin of error. Landfall at 948mb. That's Major territory.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM LAURA      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N  75.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 24.08.2020    0  20.5N  75.9W     1003            40
    1200UTC 24.08.2020   12  21.1N  80.0W     1001            39
    0000UTC 25.08.2020   24  21.9N  83.4W      996            44
    1200UTC 25.08.2020   36  23.1N  86.8W      992            51
    0000UTC 26.08.2020   48  24.2N  89.8W      984            55
    1200UTC 26.08.2020   60  25.5N  92.8W      968            71
    0000UTC 27.08.2020   72  27.2N  95.0W      950            81
    1200UTC 27.08.2020   84  29.2N  96.1W      948            64
    0000UTC 28.08.2020   96  31.8N  96.3W      967            48
    1200UTC 28.08.2020  108  34.7N  95.4W      976            35
    0000UTC 29.08.2020  120  36.4N  93.3W      986            28
    1200UTC 29.08.2020  132  37.0N  89.3W      978            39
    0000UTC 30.08.2020  144  37.3N  82.5W      982            29
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prospects8903
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Looks to me for the euro run to verify Laura would need to moving NW right now
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Yep. Ukie initialized pretty darn close and comes in near Sargent.

That's gonna mess with the consensus track.
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sambucol
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Will this run of the unmet cause the NHC it shift back west in the morning’s update?
prospects8903
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CMC big shift west
javakah
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Wipe left, wipe right, wipe left...
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Rip76
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javakah wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:40 pm Wipe left, wipe right, wipe left...
Shoot for the average.
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