August 2020:

[Scott747]

New track is just a few miles to the e of Cameron.

[Stormlover2020]

Nam

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2406&fh=45

[weatherguy425]

Even without the best center initiations, 06Z data has adjusted west a bit... awaiting tropical suite. The UKMET has done pretty well (literally) and has a solid mid, upper Texas coast landfall on the 00Z.

06Z ICON:

[Stormlover2020]

I was about to post lol

[Scott747]

6z ICON goes in closer to Bolivar/High Island. 0z was sw la.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs is coming in stronger

[Tx2005]

GFS is 965 mb @48 hrs compared to 991 mb @54 hrs on 0z run.

[Tx2005]

GFS hits SW Louisiana 955 mb.....previous run was maybe a hair to the East 971 mb

At least it stays away from Houston, but that intensity is scary.

[Stormlover2020]

Looking like la/tx with the consensus

[weatherguy425]

Not, exactly, sure how big of an impact it will have. But, once again, the GFS initialized a bit too far north.

[Stormlover2020]

Not, exactly, sure how big of an impact it will have. But, once again, the GFS initialized a bit too far north.

Ukmet has been money as of now

[Tx2005]

Does the UKMET have a 6z run? If so, when does that start? I think the 0z was just west of Freeport.

[Scott747]

Does the UKMET have a 6z run? If so, when does that start? I think the 0z was just west of Freeport.

Ukie only runs at 0 and 12z. There may be some commercial output on the off hours but I'm not aware of any.

Euro has abbreviated runs on the off hours.

[Scott747]

Interesting note. Recon was allowed to cross over Cuban airspace on the way to Laura.

[Scott747]

Should know soon if there is still a secondary vort or the original is still the dominant one.

[weatherguy425]

Critically important, folks. Model data is one thing... what is happening is more important. Stronger ridge + less Texas troughing increases risk of a further-southwest landfall verifying.

[Tx2005]

I’m guessing that puts Houston in the crosshairs then.

[weatherguy425]

I’m guessing that puts Houston in the crosshairs then.

Houston has been solidly “in the cone” for a while now. Don’t let your guard down; even southwest of Houston.

[Scott747]

Oof. That's a big shift w so far on the 6z HMON.

[Scott747]

HWRF is about the same as 0z thru 45 hrs.