August 2020:

[mcheer23]

The 10am cone was actually shifted a nudge east it looks like.

Yeah, I expected it to go a tick west, not east?

I think everyone expected it to go west.

[vci_guy2003]

Interesting. NHC did mention that the UKMET was well west of consensus, so not sure why they didn’t at least nudge the cone west.

[Scott747]

They do realize the Euro has off hour runs now?

[Kingwood36]

Not unless they see something else we dont

[davidiowx]

I mean you have to trust the NHC because they are pretty good, but this is odd with what models are showing. There must be something they know and/or are seeing. Remember they have a lot more data than what the general public can see.

Edit to add: I would be willing to bet they are waiting until 1 or so to see what models have and where Laura is before any track adjustments. The track they issue this afternoon/evening will have to be pretty accurate given the amount of time (or lack there of) before landfall.

[Kingwood36]

Maybe they are waiting for laura to get in the gulf? Not get better modeling

[CRASHWX]

https://maps.apple.com/?ll=29.785503,-9 ... V8A%3D&t=m

New ground zero...wow this is frustrating

[txbear]

Wait, what? That seems to go against every trend and expectation since the overnight model runs. Is there just that much confusion on Laura's center? Or is it the strength of the ridge that's throwing things off? I'm baffled.

Edit one more time...RECON is up on Laura (AF301) and center is offshore to the south of Cuba. The only model grasping that location is the Ukie, but NHC is essentially throwing that one out. I don't get it.

[djmike]

Wow. IMO not a smart move with the east a bit. With ALL the latest model data mets and I were 95% of a westward shift. This one is even more head scratching than lastnights shift. If ANYTHING they should have atleast left it where it was. I wonder if someone new is in charge at the NHC. Ive never seen so much back and forth on the cone. You KNOW they will shift back at 4pm. UnBElievable. That cone shift is now going to make it too late for folks to evacuate if it comes to Texas.

[snowman65]

Wow. IMO not a smart move with the east a bit. With ALL the latest model data mets and I were 95% of a westward shift. This one is even more head scratching than lastnights shift. If ANYTHING they should have atleast left it where it was. I wonder if someone new is in charge at the NHC. Ive never seen so much back and forth on the cone. You KNOW they will shift back at 4pm. UnBElievable. That cone shift is now going to make it too late for folks to evacuate if it comes to Texas.

Not me.....I'm outta here in 30 minutes

[jasons2k]

I am very concerned the Houston-Galveston area is going to lose a critical day of preparation because of this.

Edit to add: my gut tells me I'm watching a slow-motion train wreck here. You know the 'fake prep movies' they make about "Hurricane Phoenix" and there is a storm in the Gulf, and suddenly the forecast changes course, and at the same time the storm and deepens, but by then there is no more time left to evacuate? This feels like that.

[Scott747]

They explicitly said 'leans towards the typically reliable GFS and Euro.'

The Euro that has only a handful out of 50 ensemble members e of the border? That Euro?

[sambucol]

We are in full prep mode. The NHC has performed poorly in my opinion. It’s time we don’t wait for them to tell us to take emergency measures. It’s time take care of our families, pets, and property and no longer wait for the NHC to implement it for us.

[djmike]

I am very concerned the Houston-Galveston area is going to lose a critical day of preparation because of this.

Me too. Us in Beaumont also. We will definitely have some affects here even with the nudge, but even that is giving folks here a sigh of relief when models clearly say get ready. Not even watches hoisted foe jefferson county. We all have just lost a good atleast 12 hours of evacuation time.

[Texashawk]

"Where have you gone, WxMan57?
A city turns its lonely eyes to you
Woo, woo, woo"

[djmike]

I wonder what Herzogs NHC “connection” is saying now.

[txbear]

Had to do too many edits due to attempting to multitask with work and this, so wanted to push this to the current page.

RECON is up on Laura (AF301) and center is offshore to the south of Cuba. The only model grasping that location is the Ukie, but NHC is essentially throwing that one out. I don't get it.

[Kingwood36]

I wonder what Herzogs NHC “connection” is saying now.

Herzog is full of it....

[djmike]

I am in Beaumont. Any shift west would put me in line or on the dirty side, so they need to hurry and decide as we are quickly running out of time. Houston you are at the better advantage point currently but Golden tRiangle will still gets strong affects even with the slight nudge right. So they should have atleast hoisted a watch or warning doe jefferson IMO. Im not liking this “down to the wire” bit if any of us needs to evacuate.

[Cpv17]

The NHC is probably just following what the TVCN says.