August 2020:

[Scott747]

The only explanation is that they completely dismiss the off hour Euro runs and only use the output from 0z and 12z.

[tireman4]

Well it will go west again..goodness gracious.

[djmike]

Ok...so...what time do the “important” models run cdt?

[mcheer23]

Ok...so...what time do the “important” models run cdt?

GFS 10:30
UKMET 11
HWRF/HMON 11:30
EURO 12:45

[Stormlover2020]

Bastardi hammering nhc-https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 90978?s=21

[dac]

Everything going on is just so "2020"....no other way to explain this craziness.

[DoctorMu]

Wait, what? That seems to go against every trend and expectation since the overnight model runs. Is there just that much confusion on Laura's center? Or is it the strength of the ridge that's throwing things off? I'm baffled.

Edit one more time...RECON is up on Laura (AF301) and center is offshore to the south of Cuba. The only model grasping that location is the Ukie, but NHC is essentially throwing that one out. I don't get it.

Check out the windmap. Laura's surface winds are definitely south of Cuba. Her convective storms are riding that trough. Once Laura gets into the Gulf, she'll likely be a monster in strength and size.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.51,2738

[Rip76]

Everything going on is just so "2020"....no other way to explain this craziness.

I said last night I'm staying away from the conspiracies.

[tireman4]

It is those young guns at the NHC. LOL.

[sambucol]

Everything going on is just so "2020"....no other way to explain this craziness.

I said last night I'm staying away from the conspiracies.

I think you’re on to something there

[txbear]

Wait, what? That seems to go against every trend and expectation since the overnight model runs. Is there just that much confusion on Laura's center? Or is it the strength of the ridge that's throwing things off? I'm baffled.

Edit one more time...RECON is up on Laura (AF301) and center is offshore to the south of Cuba. The only model grasping that location is the Ukie, but NHC is essentially throwing that one out. I don't get it.

Check out the windmap. Laura's surface winds are definitely south of Cuba. Her convective storms are riding that trough. Once Laura gets into the Gulf, she'll likely be a monster in strength and size.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.51,2738

Doesn't get much clearer than that. And agree, once she makes it into the Gulf "bath", watch out. Which leads to the next thought, if she explodes, doesn't that favor a more westward solution?

[Cpv17]

The only explanation is that they completely dismiss the off hour Euro runs and only use the output from 0z and 12z.

I agree 100% with this.

[tireman4]

Laura 10 am advisory

[Scott747]

*smh* Now we have the latest recon fix. Insanity.

[Stormlover2020]

Scott what does it show

[tireman4]

I wonder, out loud, if the NHC reads the comments from Twitter?

[Tx2005]

I sure as hell don’t want this storm coming to Houston by my god we need some clarity or time is going to run out for people.

[Tx2005]

*smh* Now we have the latest recon fix. Insanity.

So does that mean the 12z data is already bad? Doesn’t it use info from 12 pm UTC (I may be wrong but I’ve heard that)?

[DoctorMu]

Massive CAPE out in the Gulf now. Higher than Michael.

Damn - the numbers didn't come out >6500J

[tireman4]

Well...they did give themselves a disclaimer....

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.