August 2020:

[Seantx81]

The cone of uncertainty is only 233 miles wide. One small swing one way or the other would have large implications. It's current wind field is 260 miles. I know that it can expand or decrease it's wind field as it strengthens.

[tireman4]

If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Not much of a storm surge threat for Greater Houston if the storm lands at the border, so no need for evacuations. I wouldn't worry about shutters/boarding up, either. Our windows held up just find during Ike in Friendswood with no protection. Rita came in at the LA/TX border, and all I remember experiencing was a breeze.

And in Humble, where I live, we got near Hurricane force winds and torrential rain from Rita.

[jasons2k]

12z GEFS ensembles

That's weighted pressure too. More evidence that this will nudge to the west.

[cperk]

I have a feeling this is going to LA

Then you’ve answered your question on whether to board up.

[Kingwood36]

12z GEFS ensembles

That's weighted pressure too. More evidence that this will nudge to the west.

Should be moved west but do you honestly expect nhc to do it?

[sau27]

Im guessing that unless 12z Euro comes way west, they wont move the track at 4pm.

[sau27]

Also does it seem like the Euro is running a little late or is it just me?

[Cpv17]

Also does it seem like the Euro is running a little late or is it just me?

Nah. It’ll start in another 15 min or so.

[weatherguy425]

Model data is always important, but let’s also watch what is actually happening and how it may impact the long-term track. The center (s) appear to still be just south of track. We must prepare, be patient and remain attentive.

[Scott747]

After the recon fixes there doesn't appear to be a real relocation, though the fixes were a little scattered. Looks a shade to the w of the latest track but not enough to have significant impact.

[weatherguy425]

After the recon fixes there doesn't appear to be a real relocation, though the fixes were a little scattered. Looks a shade to the w of the latest track but not enough to have significant impact.

Certainly possible, but even small adjustments now, I believe, could have significant impacts down the road - EPS range illustrates it to some extent.

[jasons2k]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297 ... 64609?s=20

[sau27]

And the 12z Euro is running.

[Andrew]

And the 12z Euro is running.

Good initialization so we should get a good run here.

[AtascocitaWX]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status ... 7130607620


PS: Dont know how reliable he is.

[davidiowx]

And the 12z Euro is running.

Good initialization so we should get a good run here.

Was thinking the same thing. Interesting next half our incoming.

[Andrew]

12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour

[weatherguy425]

12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour

Ridge appears to be a bit stronger as well. Though, could have to do with modeled time.

[AtascocitaWX]

Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.

[Andrew]

Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.

Unfortunately, idk if wxman57 really visits this board much anymore. He does drop by on storm2k on occasion but I don't think he has really given many thoughts about Laura lately.