August 2020:

[TXWeatherMan]

Anybody know where the UKMET makes landfall?

West of Sabine Pass, south of Beaumont.

Thanks. More west than the previous run?

[jasons2k]

Anybody know where the UKMET makes landfall?

West of Sabine Pass, south of Beaumont.

Thanks. More west than the previous run?

Yes, it had swung into LA earlier today. Now shifting back west (slowly).

[don]

Big shift west on the CMC Landfall in Chambers County

[Andrew]

HMON coming in a little west, but the 18z run was a bad run.

[don]

HMON has landfall at the TX/LA border the same as the previous run but much stronger.

[Andrew]

Recon is finding a west movement which is concerning considering how fast it's currently moving.

[Andrew]

HMON has landfall at the TX/LA border the same as the previous run but much stronger.

Yea, takes a pretty aggressive north turn. That is more than likely going to be the key factor here.

[Texashawk]

Based on the last set of recon coordinates, Laura's going to have to move at a 311 degree vector (NW) to make its next forecast point, and it is showing no signs of making anything like that kind of turn. I'm starting to get pretty damn nervous about this.

[srainhoutx]

HWRF looks like TX/LA border landfall

[DoctorMu]

AF RECON may have just found the center right off the Western tip of Cuba. Extrapolated 995mb. Looks almost due W of an early center pass when the first arrved.

I see it. Holy **** the legit center moved due west.

[Belmer]

Based on where RECON is finding the center, it has seemed to take a jog slightly southwest from its last point. Looks like the center is around 22.45N 84.6W which would put it on the extreme southern edge of the 10PM NHC cone. May try and be tugging towards the deeper convection that's off to its south.

Large hot tower going up on its eastern side.

[don]

Very Interesting Pretty much ALL 0z GFS ensemble members show Texas now....

[DoctorMu]

Very Interesting Pretty much ALL 0z GFS ensemble members show Texas now....

Because of the curvature, it takes such a small margin of error from LaTX border to Galveston Bay...

[Scott747]

It gets any further w and simply extrapolating it out even if they didn't change the track...

I don't see how they can't extend the hurricane watches further down the coast.

Not to mention it's going to be a nail biter on approach.

[DoctorMu]

She's a Hurricane. 78.3 mph.

[Belmer]

Very Interesting Pretty much ALL 0z GFS ensemble members show Texas now....

And yet the current center is still south of all those ensemble runs. Also of note, the 00z Euro last night compared to now is a good degree south from where it had forecasted to be. 18z Euro is about a hair south from where the apparent center is. Laura continues to ridge the southern end of most model guidance. Unless the Euro here in about 30 minutes shows an eastward bend, I'd suspect a more westward shift in the 5am advisory.

[Scott747]

0z Euro is already starting off wrong given the current location of Laura.

[Andrew]

0z Euro is already starting off wrong given the current location of Laura.

Big west jump though

[Belmer]

Euro initializing a much stronger Bermuda ridge on this run...

[Texashawk]

I have a really, really, really bad feeling about what I'm seeing tonight.