August 2020:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Final batch before the 4 PM Full Package Advisory

Will that be enough for them to pull the trigger on a shift in the cone? I guess we will see...

20 mile shift west.

Next cone is Freeport to Port A

[Tx2005]

Will they increase the intensity forecast?

[snowman65]

Will that be enough for them to pull the trigger on a shift in the cone? I guess we will see...

20 mile shift west.

Next cone is Freeport to Port A

Port A = Port Aransas or Port Arthur?

[mcheer23]

20 mile shift west.

Next cone is Freeport to Port A

Port A = Port Aransas or Port Arthur?

Port Arthur.

Cone will definitely stay in Louisiana. I don't expect much change. Maybe a slight shift west 10-20 miles.

[Kingwood36]

20 mile shift west.

Next cone is Freeport to Port A

Port A = Port Aransas or Port Arthur?

I'm assuming Arthur

[snowman65]

Next cone is Freeport to Port A

Port A = Port Aransas or Port Arthur?

I'm assuming Arthur

I'll take either one...just get it away from me.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Arthur

[cperk]

I think Laura is trying to form an eyewall.

[jasons2k]

18z early guidance - a shift west from 12z

[Katdaddy]

Laura is wrapping up this afternoon with an eyewall developing. Here we go and and it will be interesting if we have a W shift in the forecast path

[MontgomeryCoWx]

She’s going vertical and up to 90kts. If you don’t want west, well this isn’t good news.

[snowman65]

She’s going vertical and up to 90kts. If you don’t want west, well this isn’t good news.

Meaning??

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If she wraps up and attains a nice vertical structure quickly, she will be more inclined to move more westerly. If she can stay somewhat disorganized for a longer period of time, she’ll favor an easterly landfall

[jasons2k]

This is almost angering. Too early to make this call - from the Space City Weather guys - this may come back to haunt them:

I think we can safely rule out a landfall near Freeport or the San Luis Pass, which would be the absolute worst case scenario for Houston and Galveston. However, a landfall anywhere from the East End of Galveston Island to the Texas-Louisiana border remains in play.

[cperk]

This is almost angering. Too early to make this call - from the Space City Weather guys - this may come back to haunt them:

I think we can safely rule out a landfall near Freeport or the San Luis Pass, which would be the absolute worst case scenario for Houston and Galveston. However, a landfall anywhere from the East End of Galveston Island to the Texas-Louisiana border remains in play.

No Jason that statement is absolutely angering.

[snowman65]

I guess alot can happen in the next 36 hours

[dac]

This is almost angering. Too early to make this call - from the Space City Weather guys - this may come back to haunt them:

I think we can safely rule out a landfall near Freeport or the San Luis Pass, which would be the absolute worst case scenario for Houston and Galveston. However, a landfall anywhere from the East End of Galveston Island to the Texas-Louisiana border remains in play.

Wow...that feels irresponsible at this point of unknowns and risk of shift.

[DoctorMu]

I guess alot can happen in the next 36 hours

We're pretty close to NowCasting.

[JDsGN]

This is almost angering. Too early to make this call - from the Space City Weather guys - this may come back to haunt them:

I think we can safely rule out a landfall near Freeport or the San Luis Pass, which would be the absolute worst case scenario for Houston and Galveston. However, a landfall anywhere from the East End of Galveston Island to the Texas-Louisiana border remains in play.

They do a nice job overall but their delivery and claim to "no hype" gets their followers to think others actaully are hyping it up when that's not the case. Sometimes Hype is required to be honest. Their "safely ruling out" a westerly track when its dependent on a pretty dramatic northerly turn is as bad as others being too hyped. I believe they have been bitten by certain calls before that backfired. Hopefully they are right for Galvestons sake.

[jabcwb2]

Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge?