EPAC Discussion. TD 6 E Forms

[sleetstorm]

WOW!!! The EPAC is on fire right now!

Yes it is, as of 2:52 p.m. this afternoon, rnmm. Now, all of us in this forum wait to see what forms in the Gulf of Mexico and Carribean Sea.

I have been lurking and reading...I place more trust in this forum than words can do justice, this forum was why I left as early ad I did when Ike hit...

I couldn't imagine what it would be like for the Gulf/Carribbean to be as busy as the EPAC is right now...can't even wrap my mind around that thought!

I understand, rnmm, but as srainhoutx or wxdata stated, this years' hurricane season could very well be as busy as 2008, if not busier. The wise thing for everyone in this weather forum to do is to simply be prepared in case this year does in fact turn out to be another 2008 in not worse. And with La Nina coming into play during the second half of this years' hurricane season ought to prompt everyone living on and near the gulf coast and western atlantic coast to be all the more attentive.

[srainhoutx]

WTPZ45 KNHC 241436
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

DARBY HAS A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND DARBY IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL MODEL
GUIDANCE. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY WHICH WOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING...AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE QUITE WARM THROUGH 5 DAYS...DARBY MIGHT NOT
WEAKEN AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY 4 AND 5 DAYS.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED
TO BE 285/8. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SO A CONTINUED DECELERATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERSE SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK. BY DAYS 4-5...THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN DARBY AND THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY IF THE LATTER SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND
STRENGTHENS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND 96 HOURS AS SHOWN IN
THE FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SHOWS A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 12.8N 98.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 13.0N 99.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 13.3N 101.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 13.5N 102.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 13.7N 102.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 14.0N 103.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 103.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Celia is back to a 100kt Major Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

Stunning Cyclone...

WTPZ44 KNHC 242036
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN NOW SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMER AND MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT
WAS EARLIER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.0/115 KT AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR 6.0.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 115 KT...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION
OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE IS IN A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ALLOWS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN LIES CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND
36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES
ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST ERODES
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. BEYOND A FEW
DAYS...CELIA IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAK. THE NEW
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN
ASCAT PASS AT 1658 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.8N 114.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 124.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[sleetstorm]

How far away from Hawaii and the Hawaiian Islands is Hurricane Celia, srainhoutx? Over twelve hundred?

[srainhoutx]

WTPZ44 KNHC 250243
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC
HURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED
EYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT. THESE
DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID
WEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER ON... GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH
SHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW
MOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA
DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT
THAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET
AT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING
CURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME.

CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ptarmigan]

I didn't think Celia would be a Category 5 hurricane and that early . Satellite image reminds me of Isabel or even Katrina. Very impressive storm!

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007111811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010071118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962010
EP, 96, 2010071018, , BEST, 0, 117N, 906W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071100, , BEST, 0, 117N, 912W, 15, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 917W, 15, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071112, , BEST, 0, 119N, 921W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 925W, 20, 1008, LO

[srainhoutx]

Looks like some renumbering for future TD 6 E

EP, 06, 2010071418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1067W, 30, 1006, TD

[srainhoutx]

621
WTPZ41 KNHC 142035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT IS BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 285/11. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS GRADUALLY BUILD A RIDGE FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY DAY 3...AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY DAY 5. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING
IN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE THAT WOULD ALTER THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS....TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR
THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST MOTION...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER STEWART