October 2020

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031959
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure remains dominate over the region through tonight
with light winds and clear skies. The dewpoint depression across
the northern Brazos Valley tonight looks to get fairly minimal, so
there may be some patchy fog developing in low lying areas. There
will be an increase of high clouds during the day on Sunday as a
weak upper level low and associated cold front moves through the
region. This FROPA won`t really be that noticeable other than a
wind shift and a reinforcement of dry and cool air. Some CAM
guidance is showing some very light, isolated showers popping up
in Polk and Liberty counties Sunday evening with the FROPA, but if
these were to materialize, I believe they will be mainly just
some virga.

Temperatures through the short term will be similar to what we`ve
seen the past few days. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the low 60s (Galveston may stick to near 70 as
ocean temperatures remain in the upper 70s to low 80s).

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure makes a return on Monday after Sunday
night`s FROPA continuing the stretch of dry, pleasant weather
through midweek. The tropics may be making a lot of noise by
midweek, but as of right now SE Texas` chances of direct impacts.
Mariners should continue to monitor the forecast in the coming
days as swells and seas will be increasing thanks to the active
tropics (more on that in the Marine section below). By the middle
of next week, Tropical Storm Gamma should still be in the Bay of
Campeche/southern Gulf, and there may be another tropical system
trying to get its act together in the eastern Gulf. Our region
should remain fairly protected from these systems as the surface
high pressure remains over Texas and an upper level jetstreak over
SE Texas should help to shear away any tropical moisture headed
our way. Though we will continue to monitor the tropics, and the
current flare up in the tropics should serve as a reminder that
this (very active) hurricane season is still ongoing.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions for the next couple days with light winds
and low seas prevailing. TS Gamma should linger around the Yucatan
and Bay of Campeche into the midweek time period. Northeasterly
flow should mostly prevail into midweek, if not longer, across the
upper Texas coastal waters. Swells associated with Gamma should
be filling into the region as we head into Tue/Wed and a
combination of SCEC/SCA flags (& higher rip current risk) may
eventually be warranted. In addition, water levels will be running
above normal so will also need to begin keeping an eye on the
potential for minor coastal flooding around times of high tide
going into that same time period. Seas/water levels may remain
elevated into the second half of the work week should the
disturbance in the cntl Caribbean make its way into the Gulf as
several models currently advertise. 47

&&

.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Gamma was nearing hurricane strength as it made
landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula shortly before noon.
It is expected to meander around the tip of the Peninsula through
the weekend and its strength will depend on the amount of land
interaction it has. Gamma is expected to drift into the Southern
Gulf and Bay of Campeche through next week while maintaining
tropical storm strength.

The next area of potential tropical development, which the NHC has
been monitoring the past few days, is in the southern Caribbean
right now and is expected to move towards the western Caribbean in
the next few days. It now has a 30 percent chance of formation in
the next two days, and a 60 percent chance of formation in the next
five day. It is expected to eventually move into the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico by next week.

Two other areas that the NHC is monitoring are out in the Atlantic.
The more northern tropical wave is located near 30N and has a 10
percent chance of formation within the next five days. The more
southern tropical wave is located near 10N, and has a 20 percent
chance of formation in the next five days. Both of these systems are
expected to move into an area of strong upper level winds which will
inhibit development.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 84 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 86 62 84 62 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 82 69 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, Bastardi is concerned about the developing tropical cyclone - particularly because it could slip through the Yucatan strait and not make landfall on the peninsula. Result: GoM major 'cane in October.

[Cpv17]

Not sure how mosquitoes are everywhere else in southeast Texas but here in Wharton County they’re really bad. In fact this is probably about the worst mosquito outbreak that I can ever remember. You can’t even open the door to the house or even your car without letting mosquitoes in. It’s miserable.

[snowman65]

something I don't understand...why do they say there's a 20% chance of development in 3 days...60% chance in 7 days.....why not just chance there's 100% chance of development at some point...we all know it's going to ended up that way....just cut to the chase....this isn't 1975 anymore. They all develope into something these days...js

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday]...

Upper level trough axis will be moving into the central and
northeastern regions of Texas today. Along the surface, a weak cold
front will make its way southward across Central Texas in the
morning and into SE Texas this afternoon/evening. No significant
impacts are expected with this front, except possibly a few isolated
showers along the northeastern and eastern counties as suggested by
some of the Hi-Res Precip models. Temperatures today will start off
a little warmer than in the past few mornings and may reach the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon prior to the FROPA. In the wake of the
front, winds will turn northerly and drier/cooler air mass will
filter in from the north. This will return the cooler temperatures
we had a few days ago. Temperatures overnight will drop a few
degrees in some areas, particularly along the northern counties.

Get ready for another great day Monday...fair weather conditions
along with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s can be
expected. Enjoy! 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
High pressure will keep it dry to start off with Monday night
through Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely see an
expansion of the tropical moisture into SETX Wednesday afternoon
bringing a slim chance for showers. SETX will be on the cusp
between the dry air to the northeast and the moisture band to the
southwest and so may have some low rain chances lingering
Thursday for the coastal areas. An upper trough over the state
Thursday should slowly shift east and southeast with upper level
moisture arriving from the Pacific and possibly some moisture from
92L west side. The forecast Thursday on into the weekend will
depend on the track of 92L and that is highly uncertain...see the
tropical section below.

Temperatures should follow a general warming trend in the long
term term period especially for the overnight lows as low level
moisture should be on the increase.
45

&&

..AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Some areas of patchy fog expected to continue across portions of SE
Texas and result in periods of MVFR-IFR cigs early this morning. By
15Z, VFR conditions are expected. Winds this morning will be light
and VRB, and turn northerly as a cold weak front moves across the
CWA in the afternoon and evening. No significant aviation impacts
are expected with this front, but a few iso showers could develop
along the northeastern and eastern counties. The chance is low and
thus excluded the mention of rain for this TAF package, but may be
included in the upcoming issuances if needed. Winds do increase a
bit in the wake of the front this evening/tonight but should stay
around 10 KTS or less for most of the local area, except the coastal
locations where winds can be a few KTS higher. 24

&&

.TROPICAL...

Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula is
expected to meander over this area for the next few days. Some
weakening is expected as the center of Gamma remains near the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant threats for
inland SE Texas is expected from Gamma at this time. Swells could
make it into our local Gulf waters Tuesday this week, increasing
seas to around 4 to 6 feet, and may produce dangerous rip
currents along our beaches, however.

Another area of interest is invest 92L, currently a tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles
southeast of Jamaica. This system is expected to gradually become
better organized and strengthen into a Tropical Depression during
the next few days. It is forecast to move west to northwest and
reach the south or southeast Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday.
Past this period, model uncertainty is present but there is a
general "idea" that this system may be able to make it somewhere
along the Central or Northwestern Gulf coasts later in the workweek.
There is still a lot of room for changes in this forecast,
however, but interests along these regions should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. 24

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively benign conditions with northeast and east winds today
before the front arrives tonight. Northerly winds increase in the
wake of the front and could get gusty well offshore toward
morning. Then persistent northeasterly flow takes hold with high
pressure to the north and the first tropical system Gamma then mid
to late week 92L to the south and southeast. Expect an increase in
seas mid to late week if 92L gets more organized and tracks as
currently forecast by most models into the Central/North-Central
Gulf.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 85 56 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 62 83 61 86 / 10 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 70 79 70 81 / 0 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TROPICAL...24
LONG TERM/MARINE...45

[Cromagnum]

That storm behind Gamma better stay the hell away. This will be the 3rd planned vacation fishing trip one of these cancels.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Weak frontal boundary will be sagging into the area this
afternoon. Some of the hires guidance suggests the potential for
some associated iso/sct shra activity. Not planning to mention in
the 18z TAFs due to sparse coverage & impacts to individual
terminals will be negligible and short lived. That said, we`ll
keep an eye on things should amendments be necessary. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should prevail. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 56 81 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 62 83 61 86 / 20 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 70 79 70 81 / 0 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[Stormrider]

We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 26.


BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of
Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La
Habana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica
tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands
Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the
system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman
Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast
to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce
3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches
across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over
the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with
this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Pas_Bon]

I don’t even have the energy anymore for this mularkey. Please.....everyone put out their cold front bait.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
510 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020


.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Surface high pressure will expand into SE Texas today as the cold
front continues to move southward into the Gulf waters today.
Slightly drier and cooler air mass will help clear out skies this
morning, but some of the south and southwestern counties may still
see some cloudiness through the late morning hours. Temperatures
will be slow to warm this morning staying in the 70s for the rest of
the morning hours, increasing up to the low 80s this afternoon. For
tonight, winds will be light and variable with clear skies and lows
in the 50s and 60s.

Fair weather conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday. High
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, likely reaching the mid
80s across most of SE Texas. Low level moisture associated to the
northwestern periphery of Tropical Storm Gamma will gradually move
into the local Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon and make its way across
the southern portions of the CWA Tuesday night. Higher PW`s (up to
2.0 inches) will remain mostly over the waters during the night
hours, therefore, rain chances are not expected inland at this time.
Inland areas should experience low temperatures in the 50s and 60s
along with clear skies, except the coastal regions where partly
cloudy skies will develop as moisture increases overnight. 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
High pressure should be the main player Wednesday with an increase
in low level periphery moisture rotating around the TD-26 likely
spreading into the SETX Wednesday and bringing a slight chance of
showers to the coastal areas. Rain chances linger on Thursday as
what could well be Hurricane Delta tracking north across the Gulf
with SETX on the western periphery of the system. The GFS/ECMWF
deterministic guidance is in very good agreement with the system
remaining east of the region. It is probably to early to go all in
on that forecast and looking through the ensembles a few get
closer to SETX which could boost rain chances and possibly some
minor wind impacts.

On a slightly different note...early next week may be looking for
a moderately strong Pacific front to swing through the Southern
Plains and interact with residual tropical moisture in SETX.
45


&&

AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Surface high
pressure will expand into the CWA today, resulting in fair WX
conditions. Light N to NE winds expected today and tonight, turning
NE to E overnight as high pressure shifts eastward. 24
&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow will prevail through Thursday. In the wake of
this morning`s cold front will see winds pick up to 10-15 knots.
Then relaxing slightly tonight/Tuesday. In general expect winds of
5-10 knots Tuesday to gradually increase to 10-15 knots going
into Wednesday night. Swells from the pair of tropical systems
should lead to higher seas tonight through Wednesday than would
normally be supported by these winds. As TD-26 takes aim on the
northern Gulf coast expect winds and seas to build quickly late
Wednesday night through Thursday night. For now will be carrying
winds out of the northeast 10 to 15 knots Wednesday night
increasing to 20 to 25 knots and seas building into the 7-9 foot
range. Mariners should continue to monitor this system closely as
conditions could become hazardous offshore Thursday.
45

&&
.TROPICAL...

Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula is
almost stationary and is expected to very slowly move southwestward
today through the next few days while being strongly sheared.
Some weakening is expected as the center of Gamma moves near the
northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant threats
for inland SE Texas is expected from Gamma at this time. Swells
from Gamma are expected to move into our local Gulf waters tonight
and continue through Wednesday, increasing seas to around 5 to 6
feet, and may produce dangerous rip currents along our beaches.

Tropical Depression Twenty Six, is expected to continue to become
better organized and strengthen into a Tropical Storm later today.
The center currently located just south of Jamaica, is expected to
move west to northwest during the next day or so and move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. There is a chance this cyclone could become a Hurricane
on Tuesday. Past the day 5 forecast, model uncertainty is still
present but there is a chance that this system may near the Central
or Northwestern Gulf coasts by the end of the work week. There is
still a lot of room for changes in this forecast, however, interests
along these regions should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. 24


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 81 58 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 83 71 81 / 0 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TROPICAL...24
MARINE/LONG TERM...45

[Stormlover2020]

Euro 06 ensembles shifted more west this morning

[Kingwood36]

Euro 06 ensembles shifted more west this morning

For delta?

[Stormlover2020]

Yep

[tireman4]

TD26 has become TS #Delta, and continues to display a compact structure, with thunderstorms curling around the north side. This is a concerning sign that increases odds of rapid intensification occurring today & Tuesday. Good news is track may now miss Grand Cayman to the south. pic.twitter.com/RkY8HapPAQ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 5, 2020

[tireman4]

2z SHIPS text shows virtually little to no shear over #Delta for at least the next 60 hours along with SSTs of around 30C. Unsurprisingly, the rapid intensification probabilities are quite high (>60%) within the next 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/cwitz37Fcn
-- Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) October 5, 2020

[djmike]

Is it possible Delta can shift more west or do you guys feel we are ok here at the border? Beaumont/Orange area? Hadnt had a chance yet to review what models are says.

[jasons2k]

Is it possible Delta can shift more west or do you guys feel we are ok here at the border? Beaumont/Orange area? Hadnt had a chance yet to review what models are says.

While we may see some adjustments to the track, this one should get picked-up and head towards Louisiana. Nothing is set in stone, of course, but the track of Delta is pretty straightforward at this time.

[don]

12z EURO is a little too close for comfort.I'm not too concerned about Delta yet though.

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensembles shifted west again

[Cromagnum]

Pretty sure I've read on S2K that the Euro is always biased west on stronger storms in the gulf.