October 2020

[Cromagnum]

Big rain band building in on the NW side.

[prospects8903]

It’s starting to move ne

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 9
Location: 28.0°N 93.8°W
Moving: N at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[djmike]

10am update...STILL MOVING NORTH at 13mph.
Track seems a little nudge west. Delta is awfully close to the border to still be moving NORTH.
We need that NE like now or us in Beaumont might get an uptick in winds!

[Scott747]

I mentioned this yesterday that it depends on how pronounced the ne turn would be on any affects to the Golden triangle. Some of the models had started delaying the turn by about 6 hrs. The track actually had a decent shift w being this close to landfall and is closer to Creole again.

[DoctorMu]

Delta is moving straight north for now. With the curvature of the coast and a fairly large eye, that eyewall will move close to the TX coast before landfall.

Trough/shear is going to cut us off from the rain in CLL.

I think Jason will see some rain before 3 pm.

[jasons2k]

So far it’s just spitting at me. We’ll see..

At least I got my run in.

[djmike]

Big rain band building in on the NW side.

Just started heavy in Beaumont on that band. Pretty gusty winds with this band. Might be a little training going on too.

[javakah]

It's already shifting east, although it's going to be interesting to see how pronounced that shift is before landfall.

[jasons2k]

Trough; mid-level dry + southerly/southwesterly shear is working its “magic”.

Thought the trough was supposed to “enhance” rainfall over inland areas today. What happened to that idea?

[davidiowx]

The center of storms wobble around often before landfall. The overall movement is north. You will see it look like it goes east or west of you stare at satellite/radar for hours.

[davidiowx]

Last few center fixes are on the west side of the track FWIW. It will likely wobble to the east over the next few hours

[Scott747]

It's certainly not moving to the ne yet. Recon just made a fix at 93.8

[davidiowx]

Some pretty strong winds up in the clouds off the coast though!

[Scott747]

Second plane was at 93.8 as well.

[davidiowx]

Yeah pretty close to the same spot

[davidiowx]

Jeff Lindner doesn’t think the rain shield will expand any further west than what it currently being observed. So basically everyone not getting rain will likely not get anything other than maybe some drizzle here and there.

[DoctorMu]

Right now the large CoC/eye is closer to Galveston than the LATX border. Even with a turn NNE there will be impacts on the TX Gulf coast

[Cromagnum]

Jeff Lindner doesn’t think the rain shield will expand any further west than what it currently being observed. So basically everyone not getting rain will likely not get anything other than maybe some drizzle here and there.

Yeah, its just east of the 288 corridor. Pretty good yellow/orange returns on radar evaporate as it approaches me. I've only got a drizzle all morning.

[tireman4]

127
URNT12 KNHC 091519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 09/15:03:30Z
B. 28.10 deg N 093.88 deg W
C. 700 mb 2805 m
D. 963 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN SE
G. C28
H. 76 kt
I. 351 deg 7 nm 14:56:30Z
J. 090 deg 90 kt
K. 354 deg 17 nm 14:53:30Z
L. 69 kt
M. 134 deg 30 nm 15:11:30Z
N. 242 deg 90 kt
O. 135 deg 28 nm 15:11:00Z
P. 9 C / 3045 m
Q. 20 C / 3035 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 2026A DELTA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 135 / 28 NM 15:11:00Z
NO CTR DROP WINDS

[unome]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Delta
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/i ... 1555.shtml

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST......

A Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at the
Galveston Bay North Jetty recently reported sustained winds of
42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (78 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven