February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[don]

Probably because we’re closer to the warm Gulf waters. Keeps us insulated and the mountain range in eastern Oklahoma also blocks a lot of cold from coming our way. Someone else can probably elaborate on that. Idk much about it.

Yes that is true, a lot of it has to do with geography, and also the Coriolis Effect.But climatology speaking southeast Texas has experienced a LOT more winter weather events than deep south Texas has.But the Coriolis Effect alters the progression of fronts and tends to pull them more southward than eastward which is why arctic fronts sometimes reach parts of south Texas before us.And then there's the Ozarks shadow, which slows down the progression of cold air advection around here when we have a northeast flow aloft.Due to the mountains blocking/slowing the progression of cold air even though i notice models tend to overdue the effect of the Ozarks shadow around here.

Ouachitas? The Ozarks are barely in NE OK. The Ozark's aren't really talk enough or even technically mountains built by crust rising. They are a plateau/escarpment that is eroding over 100s of millions of years. Just like the Hill Country (Edward plateau escarpment) doesn't block jack****. The Ouchitas are taller and are an ancient mountain range.

OK's highest altitude/point is in its panhandle.

I was referring to the Ozarks in Arkansas, which sometimes slows down the progression of arctic air over eastern Texas when high pressure is positioned northeast of us over the Midwest. But i notice the effect doesn't really happen often and models tend to overdue the effect.

[redneckweather]

Mr. Billingsley has the precip gone before the real cold arrives, and his forecast bottoms-out at 32 degrees on Valentine’s Day morning. Nothing extreme.

Lol, no offense to Frank but man, he was absolutely dead wrong on a couple of hurricane tracks this past season when he made "matter of factly" forecasts for them. Too tired to remember, maybe tomorrow.lol

[TXWeatherMan]

CMC has a major ice storm for southeast Texas.

[TexasMetBlake]

CMC has a major ice storm for southeast Texas.

You do realize that the CMC has us in the 20s for daytime highs on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into Monday. That's never, ever happened before for that duration in our recorded history and no other model even comes close to that solution. The CMC is garbage and should be disregarded. Although IF it did stumble and get it right, that is an ice age for the US. It just keeps reloading with 1050-1060+ high after another. #WontHappen

[TXWeatherMan]

CMC has a major ice storm for southeast Texas.

You do realize that the CMC has us in the 20s for daytime highs on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into Monday. That's never, ever happened before for that duration in our recorded history and no other model even comes close to that solution. The CMC is garbage and should be disregarded. Although IF it did stumble and get it right, that is an ice age for the US. It just keeps reloading with 1050-1060+ high after another. #WontHappen

Yes I know. It’s just fun to look at sometimes.

[Cpv17]

I honestly feel like the CMC has gotten a little better over the last year or two.

[TexasMetBlake]

Battle of the ages setting up between the GFS/CMC vs the Euro.

GFS/CMC say coats, jackets, layers, heaters, record cold
Euro says una mas cerveza por favor while wearing shorts and a tank top.

Euro has highs near 70 next weekend while the GFS and CMC are in the freezer at the same time with both models showing highs in the 20s. Yikes. I expect the models will struggle with the pattern given the very shallow nature of the airmass. I suspect we'll see the GFS/CMC moderate while the Euro will snap back to join the others somewhere in the middle but on the colder side of middle. Models are notorious for losing these shallow airmasses.

[TXWeatherMan]

Battle of the ages setting up between the GFS/CMC vs the Euro.

GFS/CMC say coats, jackets, layers, heaters, record cold
Euro says una mas cerveza por favor while wearing shorts and a tank top.

Euro has highs near 70 next weekend while the GFS and CMC are in the freezer at the same time with both models showing highs in the 20s. Yikes. I expect the models will struggle with the pattern given the very shallow nature of the airmass. I suspect we'll see the GFS/CMC moderate while the Euro will snap back to join the others somewhere in the middle but on the colder side of middle. Models are notorious for losing these shallow airmasses.

Does the Euro lose the cold completely or just push back the arrival by a few days?

[TexasMetBlake]

Battle of the ages setting up between the GFS/CMC vs the Euro.

GFS/CMC say coats, jackets, layers, heaters, record cold
Euro says una mas cerveza por favor while wearing shorts and a tank top.

Euro has highs near 70 next weekend while the GFS and CMC are in the freezer at the same time with both models showing highs in the 20s. Yikes. I expect the models will struggle with the pattern given the very shallow nature of the airmass. I suspect we'll see the GFS/CMC moderate while the Euro will snap back to join the others somewhere in the middle but on the colder side of middle. Models are notorious for losing these shallow airmasses.

Does the Euro lose the cold completely or just push back the arrival by a few days?

Completely through the end of the run, 240 hours.

[Cpv17]

Battle of the ages setting up between the GFS/CMC vs the Euro.

GFS/CMC say coats, jackets, layers, heaters, record cold
Euro says una mas cerveza por favor while wearing shorts and a tank top.

Euro has highs near 70 next weekend while the GFS and CMC are in the freezer at the same time with both models showing highs in the 20s. Yikes. I expect the models will struggle with the pattern given the very shallow nature of the airmass. I suspect we'll see the GFS/CMC moderate while the Euro will snap back to join the others somewhere in the middle but on the colder side of middle. Models are notorious for losing these shallow airmasses.

Does the Euro lose the cold completely or just push back the arrival by a few days?

Completely through the end of the run, 240 hours.

Check out the Ukie.

[Kingwood36]

So the euro is the only model that seems to have lost the cold air? All the others have kept it?

[Cpv17]

So the euro is the only model that seems to have lost the cold air? All the others have kept it?

That’s correct but I expect the Euro to cave in soon.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs not that impressive either

[Kingwood36]

I think Lucy is gearing up and getting ready

[Cromagnum]

Its just going to be seasonably cool/cold. I'm not holding my breath for anything else.

[Kingwood36]

I'm just going to have to move if I want cold and winter weather..this 5 to 10 yr stuff for a flake is getting old lol

[tireman4]

We are still aways from it. The Cold air is there. Be patient.

[biggerbyte]

I swear some thing just never change..

BRRRRR

LOL

[don]

12z GFS and 12z ICON looks similar to last nights CMC, and gets very close to showing a winter storm valentines weekend.We just need the shortwave from the Pacific to dig more or not shear out and we would be in business.As plenty of cold air looks to be in place and all the models are starting to latch on to a potent shortwave moving in from California at the same time. At this time i am not expecting any record breaking cold,but a few days of not getting out of the 30s and a couple of hard freezes is definitely on the table with this setup.

[Cpv17]

Goodness, one thing is for certain is that the models outside the Euro are very interesting.