April 2021

[DoctorMu]

Jason - it looks like the cell is collapsing - probably just outflow for you. Glad you got some rain yesterday.

[jasons2k]

So, when today's 4PM package came-out, for tomorrow night they had me with a 50% chance of "Severe Thunderstorms"

Just checked again and now it says 30% chance of "Thunderstorms"

I didn't expect them to update the zone package until 4AM tomorrow. That's weird -- maybe they saw something? Just seems unusual for them to drop rain chances like that without waiting for the overnight runs and some updated soundings...

[jasons2k]

Now it's 40%...split the difference!
That's the wrong side of 50/50 though.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro looks ok. GFS not so much.

[jasons2k]

We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...

[Cpv17]

We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...

We might possibly have to wait till next Friday or Saturday for our next best chance at widespread rains. Not just this only north of I-10 crap.

[Cromagnum]

We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.

[txbear]

Man that was an impressive cell that trucked down Hwy 6. DoctorMu - glad to hear all is well in your neck of the woods.

All it took was finding that one parcel of atmosphere to punch through the cap and it was off to the races for that sucker. Noticed there were a few more storms that popped off to the north of it as well, so just enough weakness was out there for a few lucky one's to score some rain. Golf ball sized hail though, I'll pass. Been there, done that.

[Cpv17]

We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.

Everything is north of us. What a surprise.

[jasons2k]

Yeah forecast says only 20% now. Must be a strong cap.

[txbear]

Disgusting out there. Rain chances also basically nil. Meanwhile, radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree up north. Seems as though we can get on the right side of any flow to not entrench us with a cap.

[DoctorMu]

Man that was an impressive cell that trucked down Hwy 6. DoctorMu - glad to hear all is well in your neck of the woods.

All it took was finding that one parcel of atmosphere to punch through the cap and it was off to the races for that sucker. Noticed there were a few more storms that popped off to the north of it as well, so just enough weakness was out there for a few lucky one's to score some rain. Golf ball sized hail though, I'll pass. Been there, done that.

A colleague was in our research lab on campus and the building was shaking. Not sure if straight line or vortex related, but they found internal space fast for shelter.

Good look at the supercell. I was going to tack a pic, but the can rat out the front!

https://twitter.com/KBTXGrace/status/13 ... 98081?s=20

Nice structure:

https://twitter.com/TheRealBigPic/statu ... 96225?s=20

Funnel associated with cell.

https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/stat ... 86467?s=20


The cell attracted attention.

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/stat ... 26658?s=20

https://twitter.com/doomalert19/status/ ... 51526?s=20

[DoctorMu]

Yeah forecast says only 20% now. Must be a strong cap.

Same here. Not sure I want to test fate again. Certainly not going to run the sprinklers!

[Cromagnum]

East Texas getting smoked again with strong storms. We can't even get light rain.

[jasons2k]

0.00" - in April due to the cap. Not good.
Strong Northwest winds.
Onto the next...

[txbear]

Got dark as the front pushed through, but not a dang drop to show for it. Starting to be an extensive issue drought wise being stuck under this #%^* cap.

[Kingwood36]

What is the long range long range looking like for rain on April 17th this Saturday night? My band has a gig outside playing a crawfish boil..hoping for no rain atleast for that night

[Cromagnum]

I'm not feeling all that optimistic about the rain this week. All the future models show things falling apart, staying north, or staying east of us.

[Cpv17]

I'm not feeling all that optimistic about the rain this week. All the future models show things falling apart, staying north, or staying east of us.

The 12z Euro looked really good.

[don]

Looks like the area will finally be getting some much needed rain over the next few days.As weak disturbances move over the state.Some may even see a few inches of rain in localized spots.