April 2021
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Is Saturday night looking good for rain? Or mostly during the day?
Honestly that’s still too far away to know for certain on timing.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:51 am Is Saturday night looking good for rain? Or mostly during the day?
GFS and CMC on board with series of light showers and t-storms Friday. NOAA update has 30-70% chance of rain every day until the weekend.
Temps in the mid 80’s. DP’s in the low 70’s, sun has been out, barometric pressure is about 29.8, and winds are nearly stationary. Seems like thunderstorms would be exploding over our area later this afternoon into this evening. Not sure how you could get a much better setup.
You and me both. Methinks capping? Looks like winds at altitude are out of the SW probably pumping a nice layer of warm air where initiation would occur?Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:05 pm Temps in the mid 80’s. DP’s in the low 70’s, sun has been out, barometric pressure is about 29.8, and winds are nearly stationary. Seems like thunderstorms would be exploding over our area later this afternoon into this evening. Not sure how you could get a much better setup.
ETA - HGX disco also mentions the lack of initiation. Sounds like a lack of a triggering/forcing mechanism to kick of the fireworks.
An incoming shortwave should help things out soon.
I’m happy to report it appears the Portofino Plaza date palms survived the deep freeze. Barely.
I’m happy to report it appears the Portofino Plaza date palms survived the deep freeze. Barely.
Late tonight and a cap-busting Friday are the best chances for rain around the Brazos Valley and Houston area.
Fuhgettaboutit after Friday.
286
FXUS64 KHGX 140023
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Quick update sent for current trends and the expectation that
outflow from LA storms will push in and initially help to get
showers going then as s/w arrives late evening scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop and persist through around 3 am
gradually shifting west then back to the east. Warm temperatures
again this evening...especially over the southern areas. Current
looking for a tie on the record high minimum at Galveston at 74
(unless the outflow from the LA storms pushing west over the
nearshore waters dips temps down to 72).
Sea fog near shore and in the bays and may need a dense fog
advisory for the coastal areas and will be monitoring webcams/obs
and trend closely this evening.
45
&&
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Sea fog has moved ashore near GLS and expect fluctuations in
VISBY from 1/4 to 2 miles this evening there. Cold front stalled
near a DKR-CLL-66R line but should slowly sag south later this
evening. Unstable airmass over the areas along and south of the
front expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. At
this point expecting more or less 2 rounds of storms...the first
this evening/early morning a lull then redevelopment late
morning/afternoon. Will continue with the previous forecast trend
of lowering VFR/MVFR CIGS overnight into IFR and possibly getting
into LIFR. Very slow improvement 13-16z in CIGS then most sites
should at least be MVFR if now VFR though with the continued
threat of SHRA/TSRA. Widespread IFR/LIFR Wednesday evening. 45
&&
.MARINE...
Expanded the marine dense fog advisory up into the eastern
nearshore waters and Galveston Bay.
11
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/...
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
On Thursday, Southeast Texas will be in predominantly zonal flow
aloft as it is sandwiched between two upper-level lows, with one UL
low located over The Great Lakes and the other located near Utah. A
weak frontal boundary will be positioned just offshore of our coast
as well. Small and embedded shortwaves will push through this zonal
flow which will be just enough upper-level support to invigorate
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday around the frontal
boundary. Forecast soundings show significant dry air aloft during
this time frame, so convection should be relatively shallow.
By Friday, the upper-level trough over Utah will begin to push
southeast. Leeside cyclogenesis will help strengthen a surface low
and its associated cold front as this front approaches SE Texas.
Moistening mid-levels from WAA and Gulf moisture will help saturate
forecast soundings and increase PWATs to around 1.9" across our
region. This combined with some instability and a frontal lifting
mechanism will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Friday.
This front is expected to stall near the coast again with
the GFS showing it stalling offshore and the ECMWF showing it
stalling in our southern CWA. Therefore, rain chances Friday and
onwards depends on where this front stalls. However, in the wake of
Friday`s front, NE flow resumes along with CAA and slightly cooler
and drier conditions. This intruding dry air will help limit the
coverage of these showers as well.
From Friday night onwards, surface winds will remain N-NE and skies
will be partly cloudy. Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 70s
this weekend. Partly cloudy skies will slightly enhance radiational
cooling, so overnight lows this weekend will struggle to reach 50
north of I-10 whereas areas south will hover in the low 50s. As a
high pressure builds in further south on Monday and washes out most
rain chances, winds become light and variable, slowing down that CAA
and allowing temps to climb back up to the mid-70s on Tuesday. KBL
Fuhgettaboutit after Friday.
286
FXUS64 KHGX 140023
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Quick update sent for current trends and the expectation that
outflow from LA storms will push in and initially help to get
showers going then as s/w arrives late evening scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop and persist through around 3 am
gradually shifting west then back to the east. Warm temperatures
again this evening...especially over the southern areas. Current
looking for a tie on the record high minimum at Galveston at 74
(unless the outflow from the LA storms pushing west over the
nearshore waters dips temps down to 72).
Sea fog near shore and in the bays and may need a dense fog
advisory for the coastal areas and will be monitoring webcams/obs
and trend closely this evening.
45
&&
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Sea fog has moved ashore near GLS and expect fluctuations in
VISBY from 1/4 to 2 miles this evening there. Cold front stalled
near a DKR-CLL-66R line but should slowly sag south later this
evening. Unstable airmass over the areas along and south of the
front expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. At
this point expecting more or less 2 rounds of storms...the first
this evening/early morning a lull then redevelopment late
morning/afternoon. Will continue with the previous forecast trend
of lowering VFR/MVFR CIGS overnight into IFR and possibly getting
into LIFR. Very slow improvement 13-16z in CIGS then most sites
should at least be MVFR if now VFR though with the continued
threat of SHRA/TSRA. Widespread IFR/LIFR Wednesday evening. 45
&&
.MARINE...
Expanded the marine dense fog advisory up into the eastern
nearshore waters and Galveston Bay.
11
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/...
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
On Thursday, Southeast Texas will be in predominantly zonal flow
aloft as it is sandwiched between two upper-level lows, with one UL
low located over The Great Lakes and the other located near Utah. A
weak frontal boundary will be positioned just offshore of our coast
as well. Small and embedded shortwaves will push through this zonal
flow which will be just enough upper-level support to invigorate
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday around the frontal
boundary. Forecast soundings show significant dry air aloft during
this time frame, so convection should be relatively shallow.
By Friday, the upper-level trough over Utah will begin to push
southeast. Leeside cyclogenesis will help strengthen a surface low
and its associated cold front as this front approaches SE Texas.
Moistening mid-levels from WAA and Gulf moisture will help saturate
forecast soundings and increase PWATs to around 1.9" across our
region. This combined with some instability and a frontal lifting
mechanism will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Friday.
This front is expected to stall near the coast again with
the GFS showing it stalling offshore and the ECMWF showing it
stalling in our southern CWA. Therefore, rain chances Friday and
onwards depends on where this front stalls. However, in the wake of
Friday`s front, NE flow resumes along with CAA and slightly cooler
and drier conditions. This intruding dry air will help limit the
coverage of these showers as well.
From Friday night onwards, surface winds will remain N-NE and skies
will be partly cloudy. Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 70s
this weekend. Partly cloudy skies will slightly enhance radiational
cooling, so overnight lows this weekend will struggle to reach 50
north of I-10 whereas areas south will hover in the low 50s. As a
high pressure builds in further south on Monday and washes out most
rain chances, winds become light and variable, slowing down that CAA
and allowing temps to climb back up to the mid-70s on Tuesday. KBL
Man the lightning and rain is intense in Beaumont. Just had two bolts hit one street over. Lets just say im awake now!! Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
711 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
LAZ030-041-TXZ201-215-216-259>262-141315-
Calcasieu LA-Beauregard LA-Orange TX-Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-
Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-
711 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD AND WESTERN CALCASIEU
PARISHES...NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN
HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...
At 710 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lunita, or near Starks, moving east at 55 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, De Ridder, Bridge City, Silsbee,
West Orange, Vinton, Merryville, Singer, Deweyville, Evadale, De
Quincy, Call, Starks, Fields, Bon Weir, Mauriceville and Buna.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3087 9364 3088 9306 3005 9358 3005 9371
3004 9374 2999 9422 3018 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 261DEG 46KT 3038 9358
$$
K. Kuyper
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
711 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
LAZ030-041-TXZ201-215-216-259>262-141315-
Calcasieu LA-Beauregard LA-Orange TX-Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-
Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-
711 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD AND WESTERN CALCASIEU
PARISHES...NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN
HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...
At 710 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lunita, or near Starks, moving east at 55 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, De Ridder, Bridge City, Silsbee,
West Orange, Vinton, Merryville, Singer, Deweyville, Evadale, De
Quincy, Call, Starks, Fields, Bon Weir, Mauriceville and Buna.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3087 9364 3088 9306 3005 9358 3005 9371
3004 9374 2999 9422 3018 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 261DEG 46KT 3038 9358
$$
K. Kuyper
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Thanks for posting the AFD. Seems my hunch on the cap was trending in the right direction, and another day of the lid clamped down it seems. Saw a line making its way inland this morning, only to go poof.
Beaumont managed to bust on through though. Wow.
Man it just ain’t stopping in Beaumont.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I think sometime after 5 today some of us might actually see something.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwest Louisiana The Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Plains Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon from the Middle Texas Coastal Plain northeastward to extreme southwest Louisiana. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell structures, with an attendant threat for large hail and isolated damaging gusts into this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles southwest of Victoria TX to 40 miles east of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015.
...Thompson
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwest Louisiana The Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Plains Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon from the Middle Texas Coastal Plain northeastward to extreme southwest Louisiana. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell structures, with an attendant threat for large hail and isolated damaging gusts into this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles southwest of Victoria TX to 40 miles east of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015.
...Thompson
Accompanying MCD discussion.
Mesoscale Discussion 0382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141743Z - 141945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. A WW may be required.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties, with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.
Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area, continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries where ascent is locally maximized. With steep lapse rates overlying this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment -- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.
While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and even some mid-level updraft rotation. As such, potential for hail and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. We will continue to monitor development, for signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.
..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475 28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811
Mesoscale Discussion 0382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141743Z - 141945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. A WW may be required.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties, with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.
Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area, continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries where ascent is locally maximized. With steep lapse rates overlying this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment -- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.
While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and even some mid-level updraft rotation. As such, potential for hail and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. We will continue to monitor development, for signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.
..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475 28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811
It's revving up near Sugarland.
The radar is blowing up in south Houston and another cell just south of Richmond.
These thunderstorms today have been nearly stationary along the stalled frontal boundary.The ship channel area has already picked up 2-3 inches of rain this afternoon.More thunderstorms are starting to redevelop along the boundary this evening and moving into metro Houston. 
It's won most of the battle so far