June 2025

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thanks guys!

And yes, I’ve been warned multiple times about their mosquitoes. I have layers!

[tireman4]

To let those who love Fall/Winter, it will happen soon enough...

[Brazoriatx979]

Alot of hype..but not much rain today..or yesterday where im at

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

An active afternoon with scattered to widespread TSRA across most
terminals as a disturbance moves through. Expect this activity to
continue over the next few hours, slowly tapering off from west to
east by mid-late this afternoon/early evening. Reduced
visibility, erratic winds, heavy downpours and small hail can be
expected with the strongest storms. MVFR ceilings are again
expected later tonight, with the best chances for terminals north
of I-10. Another disturbance will be moving across the region
tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Uncertainty in timing and
coverage of these storms is still medium to high; therefore, will
continue with PROB30 for most terminals. Winds will generally
remain from the east, south-southeast around 5 to 10 knots.

JM

[tireman4]

Heads Up

[oleander]

Just took this on my evening walk of the storm towards Columbus.

Howdy neighbor! Quite a lightning show last night in that one. We are new to the area, near Rock Island. I put out fertilizer in anticipation and got almost nothing. Hoping for a soaker this week.

[Pas_Bon]

Just took this on my evening walk of the storm towards Columbus.

Howdy neighbor! Quite a lightning show last night in that one. We are new to the area, near Rock Island. I put out fertilizer in anticipation and got almost nothing. Hoping for a soaker this week.

Welcome. LSU fans automatically get the perfect amount of rain at the perfect time. You should consider it. It's a great club to be in.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

To let those who love Fall/Winter, it will happen soon enough...

From your lips to Gods ears!

[Stratton20]

Yikes! 18z HRRR hinting at a flooding event somewhere in se texas with training rain bands wednesday- friday

[869MB]

Yikes! 18z HRRR hinting at a flooding event somewhere in se texas with training rain bands wednesday- friday

Regardless how this plays out, we'll be good here in Katy, because all of the good rains dissipate as they move into our part of town. Only to re-intensify as they move away from this general area.

[Stratton20]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see FFW’s issued tommorow as a very slow moving upper low lingers in texas through friday, HRRR shows significant rains right across the heart of downtown

[davidiowx]

Yikes! 18z HRRR hinting at a flooding event somewhere in se texas with training rain bands wednesday- friday

Regardless how this plays out, we'll be good here in Katy, because all of the good rains dissipate as they move into our part of town. Only to re-intensify as they move away from this general area.

I know your pain.

[Cpv17]

Beautiful pic of the orange moon I just took.

[Ptarmigan]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see FFW’s issued tommorow as a very slow moving upper low lingers in texas through friday, HRRR shows significant rains right across the heart of downtown

The forecast model has a foot of rain falling. That would lead to flooding.

[Stratton20]

06z HRRR has between 7-15 inches for parts of se texas throufh friday, wednesday afternoon- early Friday morning is looking concerning

[tireman4]

Heads up for the morning rush hour traffic

[Cpv17]

06z HRRR has between 7-15 inches for parts of se texas throufh friday, wednesday afternoon- early Friday morning is looking concerning

The globals are starting to pick up on that potential as well.

[jasons2k]

If that were to verify, that would be the most rain for me at 44hours that I’ve seen since we moved here 20 years ago, outside of a tropical cyclone.

[tireman4]

Be aware today

[tireman4]

042
FXUS64 KHGX 111136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Rounds of storms continue to make their way through the region as
the week goes on, and the persistent, unsettled pattern will begin
to add up as time goes on. Some of the key points from tonight`s
forecast:
- A flood watch has been issued for portions of Southeast Texas
north of the Houston metro. The initial locations of greatest
concern will be streets and low-lying/poor drainage spots in
more urbanized locations like Bryan/College Station and
Huntsville. As the day wears on, accumulating rain may begin to
result in flooding concerns beginning to emerge in more rural
locations of the watch area. This area is in a moderate risk of
excessive rain (threat level 3 of 4) today.
- The rest of Southeast Texas, while not (yet) in a watch, will
not escape cleanly. More isolated flooding issues may emerge in
highly urbanized locations or places that have seen heavier rain
the past couple days. The rest of Southeast Texas is in a slight
risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4). Depending on how
today`s rains evolve, there may be a need to expand the flood
watch into parts of this area.
- Finally, flooding caused by heavy rain is not our only concern
today. There is also a marginal (threat level 1 of 5) to slight
(threat level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms today as
well. The primary threat is roughly along the I-10 corridor,
where damaging wind gusts are the most probable hazard though a
brief tornado or two can`t be ruled out. A secondary hazard
area-wide is also potential for large hail to around an inch in
diameter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Our next round of showers and thunderstorms has moved out of
Central Texas and is at our doorstep, primed to bring more rain
and lightning to the area, along with some potential for flash
flooding and severe weather.

To that end, we have a flood watch for the northernmost two rows
of counties in our warning area. I was actually very on the fence
about this watch, and nearly opted not to issue one. Why not?
Well, unlike our neighbors, we`ve actually been fairly lucky with
our rain so far this week. By and large, storms have been decently
spaced out, and broad averages of rain totals are so far lower
than those around us. While strong storms have put down heavier
rain in isolated locations, by and large the area is in pretty
good shape. We`ll need to continue to get solid rainfall amounts
to eat away at the cushion we have in our moist, but not yet
saturated grounds.

So, when it comes to this watch, it`s a bit of an evolving/fluid
threat. Initially, the concern will be for urban locations in the
watch area, particularly B/CS and Huntsville. Here, high rain
rates from the strongest storms will have rain most quickly
convert to runoff and could cause street flooding and/or flooding
in low- lying and poor drainage areas. In fact, this potential is
what finally pushed me to issue the watch. HREF probabilities for
1" per hour are above 50 percent and 3" per three hours above 30
percent (which I mentally round to 3" per hour, as this rain will
be convective and likely concentrated in time) are found today in
the watch area. Since heavy rain looks likely and there is a
definitely signal for very heavy rain, those urban spots could see
problems emerge and warnings needed before we could get a watch if
out if we opted for a wait and see approach right now. As the day
wears on, and potentially continues into Thursday...rain
accumulations will begin to sap whatever cushion more rural areas
have, and ultimately we could see a flash flooding threat emerge
more broadly across the watch area.

One thing I want to really emphasize though, is that this is an
initial effort at a flood watch. Even though other parts of the
area are not currently under a watch, we are also keeping an eye
on how rains perform there as well - especially the heavily
urbanized Houston metro. Depending on how rain evolves today, and
as we set our expectations through the rest of today into
tomorrow, there may be some need to reconfigure the watch. I`m
sure hoping we don`t, but it`s certainly on the table. One thing
that stood out to me in the HREF probability-matched mean 3-hr QPF
is that the signal for heavier rain did start to drift into the
Houston metro. The difference between here and the watch area is
that while we had a clear ensemble signal for heavier rain and
potentially very heavy rain, the probabilities were much lower
(and for very heavy rain, functionally gone). So folks south of
the watch area should still be keeping an eye on how conditions
evolve. And even if the watch can stay as it is, the flood threat
is not zero outside the watch area. We could well see relatively
lighter rains, but isolated flooding could still occur underneath
one storm in particular. The broader threat may not be big, but it
sure is in that one precise spot!

Beyond the flooding concern, there`s also a severe threat to
contend with. There is certainly some threat area-wide for storms
producing damaging wind gusts and/or large hail, as we`ve had the
past couple of days. All of Southeast Texas has at least a
marginal risk of severe storms again today. I do want to focus on
a corridor a little farther south, though. Objective mesoanalysis
has MLCAPE already above 2500 J/Kg from around I-10 southward, and
should modestly increase into the day, though cloud cover will
thankfully keep it from increasing dramatically. Regardless,
that`s already enough to fuel some stout thunderstorms. Broadly
speaking, bulk shear is not terribly impressive, but as we likely
see the storms evolve into a mesoscale convective vortex as we saw
with yesterday`s storms, and the deformation of the low level wind
field around that MCV should create a narrow area of enhanced
deep layer shear. So, when you look at SPC`s day 1 severe weather
outlook and you see that narrow slight risk oval, that goes into
why they`re able to draw such a narrow alley. Where the
instability lines up with this enhanced band of directional shear,
that`s where the potential for damaging wind gusts, and maybe even
a brief tornado will emerge.

Beyond today...not much change for tomorrow. We wait for the next
disturbance in the train to make its way through, and as we can
pick out all the mesoscale details like we have today, we`ll
elaborate on the nuances. For now, the guidance seems to favor
timing very similar to today: storms making their way in from the
west in the morning, and scraping their way across Southeast Texas
through the day. But so many of the details are subject to being
modified by how today plays out, so be sure to check back for our
latest thoughts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The long term forecast continues to feature active weather with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely over the weekend into
next week. Midlevel ridging near Baja California is progged to
gradually shift E/NE and amplify over the next several days, though
it`ll remain distant enough such that a few disturbances & shortwave
impulses will be able to wedge their way south and pass through the
region. With deep moisture and high PWs of 1.8-2.4 inches still
expected, there will be a daily risk of heavy downpours. WPC
maintains a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) risk of
Excessive rainfall on Friday into Saturday, and may likely extend
this risk through Sunday into early next week. Additional rainfall
amounts from Friday through Tuesday will generally be under 1 inch,
though isolated higher amounts will be possible each day, especially
in areas further north/northeast. Rainfall from earlier this week
will likely increase soil saturation, make them more prone to
runoff. Rises in creeks and streams are likely as a result. Minor to
Moderate river flooding is still ongoing over portions of the
Trinity river and will likely continue as a result of this
additional rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

What is high confidence - there will be rain and storms across
Southeast Texas on and off through much of the day. Some of the
storms may become strong. We can then expect some calming down in
the evening, though it`s not impossible for some showers to
persist, with the next wave potentially making its way in at the
very end of the cycle.

What`s not high confidence? Pretty much all specifics beyond that
high level sketch. These TAFs will almost certainly require
amendments to keep up with the evolution of storms on the smaller
scale to best reflect their impacts to specific terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Small craft should exercise caution early Monday morning for south
winds of 15 to 20 knots and sea ranging from 3 to 5 feet. In
Galveston bay, wave heights up to 2 ft have been reported with
occasional wind gusts to 30 knots for higher-profile ships. A broken
line of thunderstorms is expected to push off the coast around
sunrise, briefly bringing strong wind gusts and northerly flow as it
moves through.

Onshore flow prevails throughout most of the work week with speeds
generally around 10 to 20 knots, warranting caution flags at times
(mostly at night for higher gusts). Seas will range from 2-5 ft with
a high risk of rip currents expected across gulf-facing beaches.
Scattered showers and storms will be a daily possibility.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Flood threats, both riverine and flash flood, are beginning to
emerge around Southeast Texas as we enter the middle of a rainy
week. Here`s a quick summary of where things stand:

Flood warnings continue on the Trinity River at Liberty and Moss
Bluff. Both of these points are expected to remain above flood
stage for several days.

A flood watch has been issued for portions of Southeast Texas
north of the Houston metro. The initial concern will be for
thunderstorms producing excessive rain rates causing localized
street flooding, and flooding of low-lying and/or poor drainage
areas in more urbanized locations such as Bryan/College Station
and Huntsville. As rain continues to accumulate, more rural areas
may also see flooding threats emerge in high rain rate storms.

Additionally, depending on how rains materialize today, and our
developing expectations for rain into Thursday, the flood watch
may need to expand or move. Everyone in Southeast Texas will be
well-served to keep up with the latest forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 74 / 70 60 80 40
Houston (IAH) 91 76 88 78 / 70 50 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 82 / 60 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-
195>198.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03