TS Harvey: Landfall in Belize

[sambucol]

I am half kidding but i am also half serious. We need rain and if we don't get it this drought will continue to destroy. Ill take the hurricane. Obviously i hope everyone evacuates and there is no loss of life.

A friend told me a meteorologist in San Antonio said it would take 3 hurricanes hitting the Texas coast to replenish the bexar county aquifer up to normal levels. We are finding ourselves in a hard place with this drought and heat. People and animals have died as a result. Although I don't wish a major hurricane upon us, I do realize the severity of the drought and water implications from it. If a hurricane will help alleviate the water situation, there really may be no other way but to have a hurricane.

[biggerbyte]

Hey, everybody...

93L has a few possible outcomes over the coming days. One important feature for us in s.e. Texas is a possible trough digging down and creating a weakness for whatever 93L becomes to pull poleward. That weakness can set up east of here, but it could also be further west over the GOM. This system could also stay south over the southern and southwest gulf regions. Everyone from the southern gulf to the northwest gulf should really watch this one as it enters the western Caribbean.

[vci_guy2003]

Stupid local mets said nothing about 93L. All they did was mention the other ones that are curving out to sea. What gives ?

[Ptarmigan]

What we need is a depression or tropical storm which are more commonly to sit around a few days and slower rain accumulation hurricanes move faster even if is dropped 20 inches of rain it would run off. Lets pray for a week tropical storm that stalls..

We need a widespread event to end this drought like June 1933 or December 1991.

[TexasBreeze]

It has to do more than it has been doing ( nhc near 0% chance in 48 hrs.) for the local mets to mention it on tv. It shouldn't do much till later in the carribbean this week.

[vci_guy2003]

Hard to believe it could dissipate this much only to come back strong later... Am i missing something here ?

[Ptarmigan]

18Z GFS backs off for 12 day model.


Same model in 16 days shows a large storm.

[sambucol]

It seems there is a consistency with the models seeing something developing and moving into the GOM. I am understanding this correctly?

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108140416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Andrew]

Just returned from Destin Florida and now back to the grind of life. I think Ex 93L will be a storm that we will need to watch closely. Convection has increased lately and models are hinting at a slight pattern change in the next couple weeks. If this system gets strong enough it could pose a threat to the Gulf and possibly even Texas. Keep an eye on this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[biggerbyte]

Ditto on what Andrew said.

[Ptarmigan]

I am not too quick to write off Invest 93L yet. It is not over when it is over. Nothing should be written off. The Invest that became Don was deactivated and reactivated again. Besides, there is the Caribbean where 93L will be traveling.

[srainhoutx]

Well the 12Z Euro is suggesting a bit stronger disturbance/possible TD forming S of Jamaica this coming Thursday...

[biggerbyte]

King Euro..

Certainly plausible.

[srainhoutx]

Convection has increased overnight lending to the reactivation of 93L. It appears the Ridge over Texas will remain in control and a track into Central America to perhaps the Yucatan if it develops. Conditions do not look that favorable for any rapid development and the best chance would be further W in the Caribbean, IMO.

[wxman57]

Looking at the GFS 400-700mb mean flow, it has a massive ridge over Texas for the next week with northerly winds from the southern U.S. to the Caribbean. Such flow would not allow any turn northwestward into the Gulf. That's why the GFS drives it into Central America. 00Z Euro has the ridge in the identical place through this week, though just a tad weaker than the GFS. It's also suggestive of a continued westward movement into southern Mexico or Central America. Same thing with Canadian, though it's a little stronger with the ridge than the Euro but a little weaker than the GFS.

Just nothing to indicate a track into the area from NE Mexico through the FL Panhandle should it develop. The weakness in the ridge to the north lies over the western Bahamas and across Florida, so there might be an opportunity for it to take a sharp northerly turn near Cuba. It would have to be a storm by then to have a chance to be picked up and turned north, probably.

I'm neither concerned about a possible hurricane impact here nor hopeful of any rain from this disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

SYNOPSIS 2011081500

P15L … 93L
14N, 50W
700 hPa

In both models, 93L is initially present only at 700 hPa and then is gradually depicted at lower levels.


ECMWF: Slight intensification for two days, then weakening. Very tiny pouch at the end. As a matter of fact, beyond 84 hours, multiple potential pouches are depicted, with a tiny pouch with higher OW values being a bit north of the large OW max that was probably the original pouch; hence the slight northward shift. (In retrospect, maybe I should have continued tracking the larger, southern OW max into Nicaragua.) Again, these are tiny features that other models may even depict!

GFS: Small, temporary intensification at 48 hours when 93L "merges" with the environmental circulation on the Venezuelan coast.

UKMET: (Not available)

NOGAPS: (Not examined)

HWRF-GEN: (Data only to 84 hours) OUTLIER! Steady intensification into what appears to be a tropical storm.

ECMWF -9.2 v700 120h
GFS -9.1 v700 120h
UKMET ---- ---- ---h
NOGAPS ---- ---- ---h
HWGEN -8.2 v700 84h+

[wxman57]

Statistical models might favor a Tampico and points South chase opportunity.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_93.gif

My track is closer to the extrapolated track into Belize, as I don't have it developing.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to take a look see...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 16/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
       C. 16/1700Z
       D. 15.0N 65.0W
       E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
       AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARK:  TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
       BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
       NHC AT 15/1100Z.

[wxman57]

I plotted the GFS/Euro/Canadian 500mb forecast for 00Z Friday (7pm CDT Thursday). Note the strong high over Texas and north and northeasterly flow across the Gulf. These 3 models say no threat to NE Mexico to Louisiana, that's for sure, and likely not for the central or NW Gulf.

Also note the due west flow into southern Mexico/Central America on Thu-Fri. That's supportive of a continued westerly track through the next 5-7 days. I think the BAMs are too far north.