TS Harvey: Landfall in Belize

[redneckweather]

The one that JUST came off of Africa is now 93L. Discuss away.

[Andrew]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108101904
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011081018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011080918, , BEST, 0, 90N, 112W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081000, , BEST, 0, 93N, 124W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081006, , BEST, 0, 94N, 136W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 146W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081018, , BEST, 0, 98N, 156W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

18Z...

[srainhoutx]

One thing of note this morning is guidance suggest this will not be a quick developing storm. The ensembles also suggest a ridge developing across the NE Atlantic near day 10 which could lead to a further W tracking system. We will see...

The attachment 08112011 06Z swath invest92l_2011081100_nest6th.png is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

One of the better track clusters we've seen in a long time. Consensus suggests a Westerly track via 18Z guidance...

[Ptarmigan]

93L has a more westerly track and if it does develop, it may pose a threat to the Caribbean. It should be an interesting next week.

[redneckweather]

Yep, this will be the one to pay closer attention to than the other two invests that are currently running....for us at least.

[biggerbyte]

93L looks to be GOM bound. Too soon to tell what happens after that, but this is the first chance in some time of having any tropical relief. We'll see if this nasty ridge can move east and open up some doors for us here in s.e. Texas. Otherwise, Mexico gets the love again.

Stay Tuned

BB

[srainhoutx]

93L continues to trek across the Atlantic around 15kts. It appears some mid level dryness has development in check for now. Warm waters are ahead near the Islands and we’ll need to watch that area for future strengthening…

[srainhoutx]

Some morning WFO snips:

San Juan:

THIS DRY AIR WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURFACE LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA
IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST COMPUTER
MODELS AGREED IN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS...APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOW AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
SYSTEM IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER DAY
THREE...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW...PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A WEAK SYSTEM. IF THIS
VERIFIES..THEN THE LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
DUE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



Key West:

MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE
DIFFERENT AS THE GFS PRODUCES ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND DRIVES IT TOWARD JAMAICA FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCES AN OPEN WAVE NEAR THE SAME LOCATION. THE PAST DAY OF
RUNS HAVE PRODUCED SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR THE SYSTEM SO THE ONLY
PROBLEM WILL BE STRENGTH. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE GFS CONSISTENTLY OVER INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THIS YEAR SO
FAR...AND WE ARE STILL 7 DAYS OUT. WILL KEEP VIGIL ON THE TROPICS AS
USUAL AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

New Orleans:

AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS THE
BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE SE CONUS. THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ROUGHLY ALONG 35W
WILL HAVE TRAVERSED THE ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CATCH A GOOD
BIT OF ATTENTION OVER THIS NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

Brownsville:

PEERING OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE A TROPICAL SYSTEM
ENTERING THE GULF SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ONE WEEK FROM MONDAY. LOTS OF TIME AND REAL ESTATE TO
OVERCOME...BUT WORTH MONITORING.

[srainhoutx]

While it appears no 12Z forecast track guidance will be issued for 93L, the pouch does remain intact and will need to be monitored as it continues W bound toward the Caribbean Islands...edit to add the 00Z Euro Ensembles...that guidance continues to advertise a potential issue near the Yucatan Channel and the Western Gulf...

SYNOPSIS 2011081300

P15L … 93L
12N, 33W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily tracked pouch with steady but only slight intensification.

GFS: Distinct, strong pouch with a westward track. After slight weakening on Day 1, gradual intensification as it eventually moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: (Not available)

NOGAPS: Moves westward with steady OW values.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to GFS.

ECMWF -8.9 v700 & TPW 120h
GFS -9.8 v700 120h
UKMET ---- ---- ---h
NOGAPS -6.7 v700 & RH 120h
HWGEN -8.8 v700 120h

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z FS suggests 93L will continue zipping along W bound around 15+ kts through the Caribbean until next Thursday. While some strengthening is suggested E of the Islands, significant increase in vortisity (both in the 850 and 500mb level) does not occur until the Central Caribbean when the forward motions slows dramatically. I continue to believe this will be a player and it should make for some very interesting conversations next week...

[wxman57]

Today's 12Z GFS takes it across the Caribbean starting around Wednesday then develops it into a major hurricane in the Gulf and it hits Houston on the 25th. Let's hope not...

[sambucol]

The timing would be just right for the start of school!

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon update concerning 93L...

NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM EARLIER PRELIMS. LATEST GFS
TRENDING TOWARDS THE ENS MEANS USED PREVIOUSLY OF GFS/ECMWF AND
NAEFS. ONLY ADDITIONAL FEATURE ADDED IS TROPICAL DEPICTION OF AL93
ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN WITH SEVERAL MODELS INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM
LATE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SEE NHC/TPC DISCUSSIONS AND OUTLOOKS.


Another thing I've noticed is the lowering pressures across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf in to 6-10 day time frame via the Euro Ensembles. That bodes well for tropical development as we head toward peak season...

[Ptarmigan]

Today's 12Z GFS takes it across the Caribbean starting around Wednesday then develops it into a major hurricane in the Gulf and it hits Houston on the 25th. Let's hope not...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal288.gif

That's 12 days later. Anything can change. I know GFS has been right in the past and that far into the future.


24 hour rainfall total. Shows heavy rain.

[Snowman]

Today's 12Z GFS takes it across the Caribbean starting around Wednesday then develops it into a major hurricane in the Gulf and it hits Houston on the 25th. Let's hope not...

Please God let this happen!

[randybpt]

Snowman, I hope your joking yeah that's what we need is a major hurricane. First it would not even put a dent in the drought and with ground as dry as it is all we would get is flooding and the rain running off. Then the destruction and lost lives I'm sorry but being a Christian I would not ask God to let this happen. I'm sure I will get slack over this post but to hope for major hurricane is the most ridiculous thing. Mother nature ( God) has a way to even things out so watch what you ask for

[Snowman]

I am half kidding but i am also half serious. We need rain and if we don't get it this drought will continue to destroy. Ill take the hurricane. Obviously i hope everyone evacuates and there is no loss of life.

[randybpt]

What we need is a depression or tropical storm which are more commonly to sit around a few days and slower rain accumulation hurricanes move faster even if is dropped 20 inches of rain it would run off. Lets pray for a week tropical storm that stalls..