TS Harvey: Landfall in Belize

[biggerbyte]

If the ridge stays in place as suggested, then Texas will have to give this one up to Mexico. What a shame. Things are just serious around here. Nothing within reach to bring relief.

[biggerbyte]

Looking at this, you can clearly see how things will traverse.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

[wxman57]

Here's the latest GFS forecast for mean steering flow 400mb-700mb valid Sunday morning, which matches the Euro and Canadian:

[srainhoutx]

18Z...

[srainhoutx]

There appears to be no low level circulation this morning with 93L. Convection has increased a bit, but the wave axis is still trekking W bound around 15kts and doesn't look to be gaining any latitude. Perhaps it will slow and begin to show signs of some surface spin beyond 70W. My hunch is this will be Central America bound or just a touch N near Belize. We will see...

[biggerbyte]

I've never seen anything like this. We can throw the norm out the door. This is August what?

[wxman57]

Models continue to slowly shift a bit south, now into northern Belize (consensus). Death ridge firmly in place over Texas - it's not coming this way.

[rnmm]

Models continue to slowly shift a bit south, now into northern Belize (consensus). Death ridge firmly in place over Texas - it's not coming this way.

Thank you wxman57 for explanation. I know the death ridge protects us from tropical action, which is a good thing...however, isn't this ridge the reason we aren't getting rain as well, even non tropical in nature? When is the ridge supposed to move so maybe we can get some rain?

[wxman57]

Models continue to slowly shift a bit south, now into northern Belize (consensus). Death ridge firmly in place over Texas - it's not coming this way.

Thank you wxman57 for explanation. I know the death ridge protects us from tropical action, which is a good thing...however, isn't this ridge the reason we aren't getting rain as well, even non tropical in nature? When is the ridge supposed to move so maybe we can get some rain?

Yep, it's the culprit. No hurricanes but no rain, either. Models keep forecasting it to weaken in the next 10 days, and it will, eventually (I hope).

[rnmm]

Models continue to slowly shift a bit south, now into northern Belize (consensus). Death ridge firmly in place over Texas - it's not coming this way.

Thank you wxman57 for explanation. I know the death ridge protects us from tropical action, which is a good thing...however, isn't this ridge the reason we aren't getting rain as well, even non tropical in nature? When is the ridge supposed to move so maybe we can get some rain?

Yep, it's the culprit. No hurricanes but no rain, either. Models keep forecasting it to weaken in the next 10 days, and it will, eventually (I hope).

Thank you very much for responding! I hope it moves too! I don't know if I ever remember Texas being in this bad of a drought! It is truly heartbreaking and horrible!

[srainhoutx]

It appears that some organization may well be starting with 93L this morning. Earlier SSMI pass suggests mid level rotation and a hint of a surface rotation as well. I believe 93L will need to slow down and then further organization will become a bit more apparent. RECON is scheduled to investigate later today. If convection continues, that mission may well happen, IMO...

[wxman57]

It's heading for Honduras/southern Belize. Probably won't even make it as far north as the southern BoC. Most likely will be TS Harvey in 48 hrs as Houston approaches 105F for afternoon temps.

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108190146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY
APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[djjordan]

Not quite done with Harvey yet as it re-emerges in the Bay of Campeche ...... Gotta be impressed with his will to live LOL


WTNT33 KNHC 212042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA
DE NAUTIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH THE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN