We may see Beryl before June 1. Wonder the statistics of seasons based on what month they start in. I ran a correlation and here is what I found. Data is from 1870 to 2011.
Let's start with correlation.
Tropical Storm
r = -0.34
p < 0.05
Hurricane
r = -0.23
p = 0.01
Major Hurricane
r = -0.15
p = 0.08
There is a negative correlation. The earlier the season, the more active it is. However, I looked at means based on month first storm formation and number of storms.
Total Storms Formed
January
Mean = 12
Median = 12
SD = N/A
Min = 12
Max = 12
February
Mean = 11
Median = 11
SD = N/A
Min = 11
Max = 11
March
Mean = 10
Median = 10
SD = N/A
Min = 10
Max = 10
April
Mean = 11.5
Median = 11.5
SD = 6.4
Min = 7
Max = 16
May
Mean = 11.8
Median = 11
SD = 4.2
Min = 4
Max = 21
June
Mean = 9.8
Median = 9
SD = 4.4
Min = 5
Max = 28
July
Mean = 10.6
Median = 11
SD = 3.1
Min = 5
Max = 18
August
Mean = 7.8
Median = 7
SD = 3.4
Min = 3
Max = 16
September
Mean = 4.3
Median = 5
SD = 1.6
Min = 1
Max = 6
Any data before 1950 should be considered dubious. I go by what is in the database.
Early Storm Formation and Activeness
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2506
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A few reasons to be prepared along the Upper TX Coast for the 2012 Hurricane Season.
The average number of years between the direct effect of a tropical storm is about 3 years....IKE was 4 years ago and nothing since.
Even more concerning is the average number of years between major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater). The Upper TX Coast averages about 20 years between major hurricanes. The record between major hurricanes directly effecting the Houston-Galveston areas since 1900 was Carla 1961 to Alicia 1983......22 years. Its been 29 years since Hurricane Alicia 1983.....IKE was only a CAT 2.
Forecast models indicate we will transition from ENSO-neutral to ENSO-El Nino during the Summer. This lessons the overall tropical cyclones due to shear over the Atlantic Basin however it does not affect the Gulf Of Mexico. One study has found 13 of the 17 major hurricanes which effected the Texas coast occurred during El Nino or Neutral years. The study was with a small dataset however it appears to indicate a positive correlation between both an increased frequency and intensity of land-falling tropical cyclones on the Texas coast.
Bottom line....be ready every hurricane season and prehaps more ready this year.
The average number of years between the direct effect of a tropical storm is about 3 years....IKE was 4 years ago and nothing since.
Even more concerning is the average number of years between major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater). The Upper TX Coast averages about 20 years between major hurricanes. The record between major hurricanes directly effecting the Houston-Galveston areas since 1900 was Carla 1961 to Alicia 1983......22 years. Its been 29 years since Hurricane Alicia 1983.....IKE was only a CAT 2.
Forecast models indicate we will transition from ENSO-neutral to ENSO-El Nino during the Summer. This lessons the overall tropical cyclones due to shear over the Atlantic Basin however it does not affect the Gulf Of Mexico. One study has found 13 of the 17 major hurricanes which effected the Texas coast occurred during El Nino or Neutral years. The study was with a small dataset however it appears to indicate a positive correlation between both an increased frequency and intensity of land-falling tropical cyclones on the Texas coast.
Bottom line....be ready every hurricane season and prehaps more ready this year.