Early Storm Formation and Activeness
Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 7:17 pm
We may see Beryl before June 1. Wonder the statistics of seasons based on what month they start in. I ran a correlation and here is what I found. Data is from 1870 to 2011.
Let's start with correlation.
Tropical Storm
r = -0.34
p < 0.05
Hurricane
r = -0.23
p = 0.01
Major Hurricane
r = -0.15
p = 0.08
There is a negative correlation. The earlier the season, the more active it is. However, I looked at means based on month first storm formation and number of storms.
Total Storms Formed
January
Mean = 12
Median = 12
SD = N/A
Min = 12
Max = 12
February
Mean = 11
Median = 11
SD = N/A
Min = 11
Max = 11
March
Mean = 10
Median = 10
SD = N/A
Min = 10
Max = 10
April
Mean = 11.5
Median = 11.5
SD = 6.4
Min = 7
Max = 16
May
Mean = 11.8
Median = 11
SD = 4.2
Min = 4
Max = 21
June
Mean = 9.8
Median = 9
SD = 4.4
Min = 5
Max = 28
July
Mean = 10.6
Median = 11
SD = 3.1
Min = 5
Max = 18
August
Mean = 7.8
Median = 7
SD = 3.4
Min = 3
Max = 16
September
Mean = 4.3
Median = 5
SD = 1.6
Min = 1
Max = 6
Any data before 1950 should be considered dubious. I go by what is in the database.
Let's start with correlation.
Tropical Storm
r = -0.34
p < 0.05
Hurricane
r = -0.23
p = 0.01
Major Hurricane
r = -0.15
p = 0.08
There is a negative correlation. The earlier the season, the more active it is. However, I looked at means based on month first storm formation and number of storms.
Total Storms Formed
January
Mean = 12
Median = 12
SD = N/A
Min = 12
Max = 12
February
Mean = 11
Median = 11
SD = N/A
Min = 11
Max = 11
March
Mean = 10
Median = 10
SD = N/A
Min = 10
Max = 10
April
Mean = 11.5
Median = 11.5
SD = 6.4
Min = 7
Max = 16
May
Mean = 11.8
Median = 11
SD = 4.2
Min = 4
Max = 21
June
Mean = 9.8
Median = 9
SD = 4.4
Min = 5
Max = 28
July
Mean = 10.6
Median = 11
SD = 3.1
Min = 5
Max = 18
August
Mean = 7.8
Median = 7
SD = 3.4
Min = 3
Max = 16
September
Mean = 4.3
Median = 5
SD = 1.6
Min = 1
Max = 6
Any data before 1950 should be considered dubious. I go by what is in the database.