Hurricane Season 2010--Thoughts and Predictions

[sambucol]

No official forecast here, but my feeling is that we will see some action in our area again this year. At least Ike pruned our trees, and most of us have generators now.

[wxman57]

I'd look for landfalls from the mid Gulf coast east through Florida and the Carolinas rather than the NW Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

I'd look for landfalls from the mid Gulf coast east through Florida and the Carolinas rather than the NW Gulf.

Yep. I agree wxman57. Regardless, it only take one to make for a very bad year.

[Paul]

I did say NO this year but I dont think Texas will be without its threats. As we saw with Ike and that SW track into Cuba then into the GOM then into Texas...doesnt get any weirder than that. If anything I would say Mid-TX coast to FL....

[wxdata]

N the non-tropical side of this forum, I note how 2 main GFS runs in a row it actually builds the ridge in the SE enough that it allows a very weak inverted trough type feature to migrate Westward towards Texas, and with fairly deep Easterly flow and what looks like generous 700 mb humidities, it might enhance afternoon showers and t-storms. About next Wednesday.

For now, the GFS is the only model spinning up the upper/surface low over the Gulf. It will be interesting to watch if the GFS is in La-La land or the other models just haven't 'caught on' yet.

[srainhoutx]

N the non-tropical side of this forum, I note how 2 main GFS runs in a row it actually builds the ridge in the SE enough that it allows a very weak inverted trough type feature to migrate Westward towards Texas, and with fairly deep Easterly flow and what looks like generous 700 mb humidities, it might enhance afternoon showers and t-storms. About next Wednesday.

For now, the GFS is the only model spinning up the upper/surface low over the Gulf. It will be interesting to watch if the GFS is in La-La land or the other models just haven't 'caught on' yet.

HGX thoughts regarding this...

FWIW...THREW OUT THE GFS AS IT HAS HAD SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. EITHER THAT OR REALLY MISSES TROPICAL
SEASON 47

[srainhoutx]

CPC chimes in concerning El Nino...

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, with the model spread increasing at longer lead times (Fig. 6). The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5oC by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions that will likely persist through Northern Hemisphere summer. Over the last couple months, an increasing number of models, including the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), are predicting below-average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region by Northern Hemisphere fall, with some forecasts meeting thresholds for La Niña. However, it should be noted that model skill is at a minimum during this time of year, and also that the majority of models continue to indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through 2010.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Jeff Masters thoughts...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[srainhoutx]

Allen Huffman (RaleighWX) releases his 2010 Hurricane Forecast...

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053 ... e-forecast

[srainhoutx]

Time for us to share some thoughts on the 2010 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic Basin. I will keep my thoughts rather simple this year and leave the technical jargon to others. After a very memorable El Nino event, longer range guidance has been rather persistent that we are heading toward Neutral conditions as we start the Tropical Season. There has been some concern that El Nino would perhaps linger a bit longer that guidance has suggested, but all signals indicate that cooler upwelling is occurring and our El Nino event is waning. There are also indications that pressure will in fact be lower across the Basin during this season. With that said, we do not know if Saharan Dust or SAL will again rear its head and squash development in the MDR (Main Development Region). Another concern is shear particularly across the GOM as the season starts. My thoughts are that we will probably see a bit of a slow start to the season. Areas to watch for early development would be the Caribbean and near 50W. There is always a chance that a boundary could stall in the Gulf and allow for some weak development in our part of the world. That remains to be seen. Also I would suspect that with lower pressures and lack of a persistent Bermuda/Azores Ridge, we could see several tropical systems re curve and pass safely out into the Atlantic. I do have concerns that as we progress into the late July to early September time frame, activity will increase dramatically. Many numbers and analogs are being tossed around that are concerning. The analogs that I have been watching closely are 1958 and 1995. With the warmer SST's seen across the Atlantic and Caribbean, the stage is being set for an interesting season. My areas of concern this season are the Caribbean, Northern Gulf Regions, to the Mid Atlantic with FL as a possible impact region. With that said, I do suspect that as we head into peak season that the NW GOM will be under the gun of a threat or 2 of tropical activity. I do suspect that we will see several long track tropical systems as well. All in all, things are shaping up to be an active season. My numbers are 15/7/4. There is a chance that these are just a bit low, so we will see. Hopefully our Pro Mets as well as our "tropical season members" will post their thoughts as well. Hint...hint wxman57. Stay Safe and keep informed. Also have a game plan and preps made prior to any threat. What ever the season brings, we will be here following and tracking each storm threat and our folks will provide a lot of great information.

These are the thoughts of this member and not an official forecast. Always refer to the National Hurricane Center and the NWS for official forecast information.

[redneckweather]

I appreciate your thoughts srain. I have read all of the forecasts that have been put out by top mets/forecasters and every single one of them is pointing towards an active to very active season. In my un-educated opinion, the GOM will be a playground for tropical systems this year.

What I see in our future here on the KHOU 'Hurricane Central' forum is a bunch of tropical threads that will run 20+ pages deep because of the tropical threats we will have this year. Interesting times ahead. I'm sure wxman will have a similar forecast as the other top forecasters have put out.

[Ptarmigan]

Here are the analog seasons I saw for 2010.

Year ACE TS H MH
1958 121 10 7 5
1964 170 12 6 6
1966 145 11 7 3
1969 158 18 12 5
1995 228 19 11 5
1998 182 14 10 3
2005 248 28 15 7

I average the ACE, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, and Major Hurricanes and here is the results I got.
ACE=178.857143 or 179
TS=16
H=9.714286 or 10
MH=4.857143 or 5

I predict 2010 will have 16 to 20 storms, 9 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes. The ACE is in the neighbor of 165 to 185, which is hyperactive.

[sambucol]

Any idea on the probability of an upper Texas coast landfall of a hurricane this season?

[Ptarmigan]

About 25% based on the most recent decade, (Ptarmigan wrote a nice analysis), but if the year is more active than normal, maybe a slightly better chance than that.


JB's revised hurricane outlook comes out tomorrow. He's been hinting a stronger La Nina means more Southern runners. I think 2007 was the year of Southern runners, IIRC.

From 1870 to 2010 (Overall).
All Tropical Cyclones=52.9%
Hurricane=18.6%
Major Hurricane=9.3%

I found active years tend to make Upper Texas Coast more vulnerable.

[sambucol]

Nothing scientific here, but I have a very strong, sinking feeling we, the upper TX coast, will be hit by a hurricane this year.

[wxman57]

I'd look for the ridge to hold to our north, keeping the big ones to our east and well to the south. This puts the greatest landfall risk across the NE Gulf, Florida and to the Carolinas. Secondarily, the far western Gulf to Mexico or extreme lower TX coast.

[wxdata]

Some more thoughts from Joe Bastardi

http://www.accuweather.com/video/833313 ... g_bastardi

[Paul]

Dean and Felix were some early riser that ran smack into the GOM ridge in 2007.....then we have IKE who slipped in under the ridge and around.....really its about timing...always has been......


if you guys are predicting I would say all of TX coast is open season...IMHO...

[Paul]

Some more thoughts from Joe Bastardi

http://www.accuweather.com/video/833313 ... g_bastardi

Well Ed, care to retract your "GOM will be below average in ssts this year"? I think you said something about beer.



Boy, its good to back!! the time is near...

[Ptarmigan]

Well Ed, care to retract your "GOM will be below average in ssts this year"? I think you said something about beer.



Boy, its good to back!! the time is near...

I think this is going to be very active season ahead. I think our first storm could very form at the end of May like in 2008.