TS Maria: North Of The Caribbean Islands

Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:07 am

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invest_al952011.invest
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201109051121
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AL, 95, 2011090506, , BEST, 0, 90N, 285W, 20, 1009, DB, 34,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:12 am

12Z...

Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:05 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:10 am

06Z track guidance...my hunch is this feature will not fully develop until after 50W. Shear looks too strong and a more Westward track should continue this week...

Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:16 pm

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 3:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1650 MI...2655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Wed Sep 07, 2011 6:59 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 39.9W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:08 am

12Z...

Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:00 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 42.0W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1305 MI...2095 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
MARIA...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 1100
AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:46 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 50.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0
WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL APPROACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TS Maria: North Of The Caribbean Islands

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