NOAA’s seasonal hurricane forecasts: Do they have any predictive value?
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/09/no ... ive-value/
A 2005 type season is an outlier and the probability of it is 1 in 400.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane forecasts: Do they have any predic
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wxman57
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The blog entry doesn't address the issue of "value", just accuracy. Accuracy in terms of the predicted number of storms doesn't necessarily = value to the general public or to businesses. It would be valuable if we could predict what areas would be impacted. For example, if we could predict that the NW Gulf would be impacted 3 times during the season by a tropical cyclone that was forecast to be very near hurricane strength or greater for a total period of 11 days (possible evacuations offshore), then that would be valuable. But a perfect prediction of named storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes is meaningless in itself for the same NW Gulf clients. It's not actionable unless the offshore operators can estimate how many days the NW Gulf may be shut down due to hurricane activity.