August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Cpv17]

Ukie into Marsh Island/Vermillion Bay

It was the last reliable model showing a westerly landfall. Amazing how quickly the models adjusted from an elongated low developing along the coast of Central America to one developing southwest of Jamaica and tracking north/northwest. We went from a Mexico landfall to a Lousiana landfall over a matter of 24-36 hours

The Louisiana solution isn’t completely surprising. Some ensembles were hinting at the more northerly lobe becoming the dominant feature a few days ago, therefore, making for a faster and further east landfall.

[TXWeatherMan]

If the 00z models tomorrow night are still showing Louisiana I’ll feel a lot more comfortable.

[DoctorPi]

All i can say is i hope we get some rain this week, this current hot weather pattern can take a hike, this heat make me feel so tired, mother nature is a bi*ch sometimes lol

I have to agree, to be honest. It astounds me how much people wish for hot, dry weather in this part of the state. A really sickening pattern indeed.

[Stratton20]

DoctorPi yeah I go to A&M in college station and man just walking in the heat to get where im going is miserable, a cooling shower would be welcomed greatly

[tireman4]

Hurricane Hunter Flight Today

Today’s scheduled flight is expected to arrive around 20:00z/4pm EST, which should be just in time to give the NHC plenty of data for the 5pm advisory. However, that time was based on a further south center, so the plane could get to TD9/Ida earlier now that it’s further north.

[Kingwood36]

Cone

[tireman4]

Another look at the "Cone"

[srainhoutx]

NHC intensity forecast suggests gusts to115 kts at landfall. Major Hurricane a possibility.

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Possibilities (Preliminary)

[weatherguy425]

Wind Field

Just to clarify, that is not the literal wind field. That is a graphic displaying the chance of tropical storm force winds.

[tireman4]

Wind Field

Just to clarify, that is not the literal wind field. That is a graphic displaying the chance of tropical storm force winds.

Sorry, I will fix. I rushed it.

[Stormlover2020]

Nam way west high pressure looks stronger

[CRASHWX]

Still dont think the models are done moving significantly…now predicted faster forward motion, how does that effect the timing with the ridge weakening and second does the ridge weaken as much if the mid-west trough does not dig as far south? Maybe I am chasing a rabbit down a hole?

[prospects8903]

Looking at where they estimate CoC looks to me the models initiated to far to the east…I’m just a novice…might be looking at it wrong

[prospects8903]

Nam into Galveston

[Kingwood36]

Wouldn't trust the nam...

[Stormlover2020]

Nam sucks but looking at the ridge, it’s stronger

[Cromagnum]

Dang. This initial track doesn't really have it going anywhere near the Yucatan.

[Stratton20]

Ridge is stronger? How can yall tell that?

[Kingwood36]

I don't think it will have much effect on the track tho would it?