The MJO did briefly before Retrograding back into Phase 7, Phases 8-1-2 are the COLD PhasesCpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:39 pmHopefully the MJO will finally move into p8.Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:35 pmThis is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interestingStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 pm 18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up
EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.
Winter Long Range Discussion
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Lets hope the MJO goes back into Phase 8 and stays their for a while, we need a good stretch of colder weather
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Phase 7 (If I recall correctly) is the cold-buildup phaseStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:57 pm Lets hope the MJO goes back into Phase 8 and stays their for a while, we need a good stretch of colder weather
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Iceresistance I think it is, but looking at the MJO chart, seems pike the GEFS ensembles want to move it towards phase 8
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I'm just waiting for wxman57 on 2k to come out and dash everybody's hopes lol
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He's already trying, his next step is try to control the modelsKingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:43 pm I'm just waiting for wxman57 on 2k to come out and dash everybody's hopes lol
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Wxman57 already dashed out hopes..sometimes I really don't like him lol
Lol I wouldn’t worry about him too much. Pattern has potential to be pretty good around the second half of the month. We’ll see what happens.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:43 am Wxman57 already dashed out hopes..sometimes I really don't like him lol
This is actually a pretty good setup and it’s 10 days out so it’s a little more believable:
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CPV17 that is a pretty good setup for maybe some wintry mischief, blocking to the north and a trough digging well south, definitely could be something to watch
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Nothing exciting on the 12z another fantasy Storm gone. Which doesn't matter really beyond 5 days
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Kingwood36 it doesnt matter, anything beyond 5-7 days is just speculation, the GFS will continue to struggle until the mjo moves into phase 8
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Don't look at Ensemble Member #2 on the 12z GEFS, it's very cursed.
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Iceresistance do you have a site that you use to look at the individual GEFS members? I would love to know what ensemble #2 shows
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https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:59 pm Iceresistance do you have a site that you use to look at the individual GEFS members? I would love to know what ensemble #2 shows
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Iceresistance haha saw that specific ensemble member haha, unfortunate that its that far out
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