Winter Long Range Discussion

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up

This is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interesting

EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.

Hopefully the MJO will finally move into p8.

The MJO did briefly before Retrograding back into Phase 7, Phases 8-1-2 are the COLD Phases

[Stratton20]

Lets hope the MJO goes back into Phase 8 and stays their for a while, we need a good stretch of colder weather

[Iceresistance]

Lets hope the MJO goes back into Phase 8 and stays their for a while, we need a good stretch of colder weather

Phase 7 (If I recall correctly) is the cold-buildup phase

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance I think it is, but looking at the MJO chart, seems pike the GEFS ensembles want to move it towards phase 8

[Kingwood36]

I'm just waiting for wxman57 on 2k to come out and dash everybody's hopes lol

[Iceresistance]

I'm just waiting for wxman57 on 2k to come out and dash everybody's hopes lol

He's already trying, his next step is try to control the models

[Stratton20]

Lol 00z GFS, just for fun

[Kingwood36]

Wxman57 already dashed out hopes..sometimes I really don't like him lol

[Cpv17]

Wxman57 already dashed out hopes..sometimes I really don't like him lol

Lol I wouldn’t worry about him too much. Pattern has potential to be pretty good around the second half of the month. We’ll see what happens.

[Cpv17]

This is actually a pretty good setup and it’s 10 days out so it’s a little more believable:

[Stratton20]

CPV17 that is a pretty good setup for maybe some wintry mischief, blocking to the north and a trough digging well south, definitely could be something to watch

[Kingwood36]

Nothing exciting on the 12z another fantasy Storm gone. Which doesn't matter really beyond 5 days

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 it doesnt matter, anything beyond 5-7 days is just speculation, the GFS will continue to struggle until the mjo moves into phase 8

[Stratton20]

12z CMC continues to show around day 9 , alot of moisture to work with that trough that the GEFS was showing by day 10, CMC also has temps in the upper 30’s with rain around, something to watch as it may not be all rain * IF* this scenario plays out

[Iceresistance]

Don't look at Ensemble Member #2 on the 12z GEFS, it's very cursed.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance do you have a site that you use to look at the individual GEFS members? I would love to know what ensemble #2 shows

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance do you have a site that you use to look at the individual GEFS members? I would love to know what ensemble #2 shows

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance haha saw that specific ensemble member haha, unfortunate that its that far out

[Stratton20]

Nice setup on the 12z EPS ensemble, it has ridging to the north as well as a trough setting up over texas, if only we could get cold air thrown in the mix as well, this would be a good setup for some wintry mischief

[Stratton20]

18z GFS back at it with the arctic air