November 2023

[Cpv17]

user:null no thanks, ill take the cold and wintry precip over mildly weather, im the exact opposite lol

That poster doesn’t like exciting weather and wants things to remain normal and near averages.

[user:null]

That poster doesn’t like exciting weather and wants things to remain normal and near averages.

Oh no, I do like "excitement" and deviations from averages ... but only during summer in the form of heavier, more frequent sea-breeze storms, cyclones, and other tropical-type convection. My ideal summer weather would be a bit cooler than Houston's averages (highs only in the 80s up to very low 90s, with triple digit F°s very rare, if not non-existent).

But for winter, my ideal would basically be like conditions today (highs in the low-mid 70s, lows in the 50s up to very low 60s), but staying that way for the entire season: I wouldn't even have winter temps dropping below 50°F for a low, let alone any freezes at all.

[Cpv17]

That poster doesn’t like exciting weather and wants things to remain normal and near averages.

Oh no, I do like "excitement" and deviations from averages ... but only during summer in the form of heavier, more frequent sea-breeze storms, cyclones, and other tropical-type convection. My ideal summer weather would be a bit cooler than Houston's averages (highs only in the 80s up to very low 90s, with triple digit F°s very rare, if not non-existent).

But for winter, my ideal would basically be like conditions today (highs in the low-mid 70s, lows in the 50s up to very low 60s), but staying that way for the entire season: I wouldn't even have winter temps dropping below 50°F for a low, let alone any freezes at all.

Sounds a lot like south Florida.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Off topic but where the hell is the fall thread on s2k?

We haven't had a fall really.

We have had, by definition, a very average fall.

Some of you don’t understand the ranges of our seasons. You expect Dallas or Little Rock averages for our seasons. It’s unreasonable.


We’ve had more of a Fall , this year, than we’ve had in recent years.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We haven't, but be prepared for an OG Fall stretch like the early 90s.

Like I said, I’d say otherwise. You people in here wanna act like we live in north Texas. We’ve had plenty of fall like weather here for southeast Texas standards in the past month. It just started late. But so does every season these days.

We have had less than a week of fall weather. It's been mid 80s and humid nearly the entire time. As a kid I remember going to football games on Friday night and it frequently being chilly if not cold. It's been shorts and t-shirt weather for all but maybe one of them.

I haven’t seen the 80s in a while. Average high this time of year is in the 70s and I’ve seen a good deal of 50s and 60s and a spattering of 40s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That poster doesn’t like exciting weather and wants things to remain normal and near averages.

Oh no, I do like "excitement" and deviations from averages ... but only during summer in the form of heavier, more frequent sea-breeze storms, cyclones, and other tropical-type convection. My ideal summer weather would be a bit cooler than Houston's averages (highs only in the 80s up to very low 90s, with triple digit F°s very rare, if not non-existent).

But for winter, my ideal would basically be like conditions today (highs in the low-mid 70s, lows in the 50s up to very low 60s), but staying that way for the entire season: I wouldn't even have winter temps dropping below 50°F for a low, let alone any freezes at all.

Sounds a lot like south Florida.

Yeah that sounds horrible.

[jasons2k]

All I can say is I have enjoyed the mild weather of the last few days. I hope everyone enjoys this Thanksgiving week!

[DoctorMu]

Oh no, I do like "excitement" and deviations from averages ... but only during summer in the form of heavier, more frequent sea-breeze storms, cyclones, and other tropical-type convection. My ideal summer weather would be a bit cooler than Houston's averages (highs only in the 80s up to very low 90s, with triple digit F°s very rare, if not non-existent).

But for winter, my ideal would basically be like conditions today (highs in the low-mid 70s, lows in the 50s up to very low 60s), but staying that way for the entire season: I wouldn't even have winter temps dropping below 50°F for a low, let alone any freezes at all.

Sounds a lot like south Florida.

Yeah that sounds horrible.

A lot better than 2022 or 2021, including a few Chamber of Commerce days. But we've had in College Station 80s on Nov 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, including an 89° on Nov. 7. Also, Nov 15.

The saving grace this year is that the DPs are lower than the last few years. It's been worse, but it depends on whether this is an average climate change fall or OG fall. I've found in 31 years living in Texas that the major cc difference has been

(a) warmer Fall weather (variable winter)

(b) warmer lows on average year round

This summer's super El-Nino flip was exacerbated by cc, but is an anomaly (for now), like 1998.

So, I would agree that this would fit near the average of a cc Fall in Texas.

My point is that we're about to see some OG Texas Fall weather with 60s and 50s between Thanksgiving and Christmas - just like the early to mid 1990s.

The average high now in CLL is 69 degrees (remember, these averages have been renormed up a degree or two with cc by NWS!). For example, the average high in January was 59-60 degrees. Now it is 61-62 degrees in CLL. (The average high for Dec 10 in CLL is 64 degrees today, 62 degrees OG)

[DoctorMu]

OG Fall weather for Thanksgiving.

NWS is now progging even cooler than OG in the long-term Nov/Dec forecast with 30s possible up around College Station.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Turbulent weather is anticipated today as an upper level trough
digs eastward through the Plains while an associated surface low
sails across the Red River Valley, dragging a cold front with it.
SE Texas is still progged to be on the peripheral of an embedded
upper level jet streak on Monday, with the front right quadrant
grazing the northern half of our CWA during the afternoon, though
the jet streak itself appears slightly further north in comparison
to previous model runs. A 30-40 knot LLJ is anticipated to set up
over portions of SE Texas ahead of the aforementioned surface
low. Bulk shear across the region ranges from 50-75 knots, with
cloud layer shear in excess of 100kts and 3km SRH ranging from
100-250 m2s2. Instability also appears more potent with the latest
suite of high-res model guidance, with mean ML CAPE exceeding
1000 J/KG, 700-500mb lapse rates near 6.5 deg/KM and ML LCL
heights hovering near 650-1000m. The latest HRRR Depicts MU CAPE
reaching upwards of 1900 J/KG at times, with DCAPE around 1000
J/KG as well. CAMs show convective development as early as 15z,
with discrete cells becoming more clustered during the afternoon
hours ahead of the cold front.

All these ingredients indicate the potential for strong to severe
storms over SE Texas today. SPC currently has portions of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area (near College Station and Lake
Livingston) under a Slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather
today, with the rest of SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5)
risk. For timing, the main threat window for severe weather will
be from the late morning through the early evening. Damaging winds
and large hail remain the primary hazards with these storms,
though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out completely. Be sure
to keep a close eye on the weather today and stay tuned for
additional forecast updates.

The aforementioned cold front finally arrives in SE Texas early
this evening, with the severe threat waning as instability
diminishes. The cold front will move offshore overnight, with
cool, dry and breezy conditions setting in thereafter. Lows for
Monday will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s. Breezy
northerly flow and mostly cloudy skies persist into Tuesday,
limiting highs to the upper 50s to mid 60s. Thinning cloud cover
and robust CAA should bring cold conditions for Tuesday night,
with lows progged for the 40s to lower 50s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Starting on Wednesday, surface high to our west will continue to
bring dry and cooler north to northwest winds into the region. Mid
to high clouds will begin to filter in throughout the day as
different impulses of energy embedded in the flow aloft moves
through. Cloud cover and northerly winds will keep highs mainly
into the upper-50s to low-60s. These impulses of energy aloft are
associated with a cutoff low spinning over TX/northern MX
Wednesday into Thursday before being an upper wave over the
Southeastern CONUS. Forecast confidence beyond this period remains
low to moderate as discrepancies between model runs/solutions
continue. Latest deterministic guidance, now including the NAM,
still differ in the evolution/track and timing of this low over
southeast TX, and therefore any significant impacts. The ECMWF and
most of its ensemble means stay consistent in bringing increasing
rain chances for Thanksgiving Day. However, it is not aligned
well with dynamics and moisture. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest a dry low to mid-layer with PWs generally at or below
0.9". The only higher solution is the deterministic ECWMF, showing
PWs around 1.0" over our coastal counties by early Thursday
morning. These values are below the daily mean for this time of
year. With that being said, and in collaboration with surrounding
offices, will continue with PoPs around 20-30% from Wednesday
night into Thursday afternoon. Overall, expect a partly to mostly
cloudy day for Thanksgiving Day with possibly some light rain,
diminishing in the afternoon.

Drier conditions briefly return into the area Thursday night into
Saturday before the arrival of the next cold front. A deep upper-
level shortwave trough will develop over the Rockies, gradually
dragging a cold front across the Southern Plains late in the
weekend. Kept PoPs as NBM guidance suggests with rain chances from
Saturday night into early next week.

Well-below normal temperatures are expected through the long term
with temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than average. Highs
generally in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows mainly into the
upper- 30s and upper-40s.

JM

&&

[jasons2k]

Oh no, I do like "excitement" and deviations from averages ... but only during summer in the form of heavier, more frequent sea-breeze storms, cyclones, and other tropical-type convection. My ideal summer weather would be a bit cooler than Houston's averages (highs only in the 80s up to very low 90s, with triple digit F°s very rare, if not non-existent).

But for winter, my ideal would basically be like conditions today (highs in the low-mid 70s, lows in the 50s up to very low 60s), but staying that way for the entire season: I wouldn't even have winter temps dropping below 50°F for a low, let alone any freezes at all.

Sounds a lot like south Florida.

Yeah that sounds horrible.

I’d take a South/Central Florida summer over a Texas summer in any year.
Same with winter.
I would actually enjoy winter more in Colorado than Texas. 30’s and 40’s, overcast with a cold rain and blustery winds just plain suck.

70’s in January while people up north are shoveling snow is heaven for me.

[Stratton20]

Anything above 60 in the winter here is miserable to me, give me highs in the 30’s with an inch of snow on the ground, makes for perfect patio and hot chocolate weather! Hopefully we get a good winter storm or two here! Need some good exciting fun! Minus the ice of course

[Cpv17]

Anything above 60 in the winter here is miserable to me, give me highs in the 30’s with an inch of snow on the ground, makes for perfect patio and hot chocolate weather! Hopefully we get a good winter storm or two here! Need some good exciting fun! Minus the ice of course

The last time we had any snow at my house was December of 2017. Due for some.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I agree with you on a Central Florida Summer over a Texas Summer.

Florida Winters suck.

It’s why I go to Montana.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 did you not get any snow during the february 2021 winter storm? Also it looks like the cold snap next week is going to be overhyped, GFS and Euro completey lose it

[Cromagnum]

Cpv17 did you not get any snow during the february 2021 winter storm? Also it looks like the cold snap next week is going to be overhyped, GFS and Euro completey lose it

No snow at our house during that either. Just some sleet and freezing rain.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 did you not get any snow during the february 2021 winter storm? Also it looks like the cold snap next week is going to be overhyped, GFS and Euro completey lose it

No. Just sleet and freezing rain. And we’re now entering the middle range. This is often the range where models start to lose the cold.

[jasons2k]

Cpv17 did you not get any snow during the february 2021 winter storm? Also it looks like the cold snap next week is going to be overhyped, GFS and Euro completey lose it

No. Just sleet and freezing rain. And we’re now entering the middle range. This is often the range where models start to lose the cold.

Me and WxMan57 called in reinforcements

[Cromagnum]

What happened to all that rain predicted for today?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Friday night looks perfect for some 3rd round playoff football weather!

Low to mid 50s and clear!

[Stratton20]

It appears the GFS has snapped back to being cold again, another nice cold shot heading into the first week of december