450
FXUS64 KHGX 131855
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
155 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Another day this week, another day with shower and thunderstorm
development. Though we may have gotten through the peak of an
organized, widespread heavy rain threat, there will still be some
watching for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. Some of
the key points for tonight`s forecast:
- A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) and a
flood watch continue along the Gulf coast today. Because of
heavy rain from early Thursday morning, rain can quickly cause
flooding issues lower on the coast around Matagorda Bay. Higher
up the coast, particularly for parts of Liberty, Chambers, and
Galveston counties, the threat for new excessive rains are
highest.
- Renewed river flooding also continues after Thursday`s rains.
The Tres Palacios at Midfield is in major flood, and the
Navasota at Normangee is also forecast to reach major flood.
Other rivers above flood stage are the San Bernard (Boling) and
the Trinity (Riverside, Liberty, Moss Bluff).
- The unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend and
early next week. Rain and storm chances will be sticking with
us, though we have likely passed the peak intensity of these
daily rounds of showers and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
The radar scope and satellite images are thankfully much less
cluttered than they were 24 hours ago! On the downside, this is
more a break than a clearing, as we should expect today (and
tomorrow...and on into the long term) to continue to see further
rounds of shower and thunderstorm development.
Around or just before dawn, we`ll likely begin to see showers
starting back up around/east of Galveston Bay, and through the
morning begin to more broadly cover coastal Southeast Texas, and
further expanding inland through the afternoon. With the most
ample moisture and instability near the coast, plus, with the
longest period of time to see rain, coastal locations will be the
most likely to see intense enough rain to produce flooding
concerns. Lower on the coast towards Matagorda Bay, we also have
the added issue of saturated soils from yesterday`s 6-14 inches of
rain meaning rain will much more quickly become runoff and
contribute to flooding. Farther up the coast, particularly around
and east of Galveston Bay, the ground may be not quite as primed,
but they are still already fairly moist and this area looks like
it has the highest chances for the most intense rains today.
Because of this, we`ve expanded the flood watch up the coast to
include all of those coastal zones. This roughly coincides with
the slight risk area for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4)from
WPC for today.
Farther inland, be it from not quite as much coverage in storms,
and/or simply less time for storms to be occurring, there is less
concern for a flash flood threat. That does not mean, though, that
there is no flooding threat. The rest of the area is still in a
marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 4) from WPC. These inland
locations could still find themselves underneath a particularly
strong storm producing high rain rates. We get rain rates too
high, over the wrong spot, and suddenly a localized flash flood
threat could emerge. But, in general, the farther inland one gets
from the Gulf, the lower the threat for flooding rains will
be...even if they don`t ever get to zero.
The one silver lining in a day like today is that the large
majority of the area is pretty unlikely to reach even seasonable
levels of heat thanks to clouds, rain, and evaporation of
rainwater on the ground. The pattern for today`s highs will
follow the opposite gradient of rain potential. Up in our
northwestern corner, we`ll see the best chances to get to around
90 degrees. In the southeast in Chambers and southern Liberty
counties, we may struggle to see anything more than the lower 80s.
And depending on rain trends, my forecast may even be a touch
too high still!
Saturday...looks a lot like a repeat of today, but tamping down
the magnitude of rainfall potential just a bit more. But we should
still look for early morning development of showers and storms
near the coast around/east of Galveston Bay, which then spreads
down the coast and inland through the day. With storm coverage and
intensity tuned down a little bit more, tomorrow does look like it
should generally be warmer than today, with highs reaching more to
around seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
The Sunday-Wednesday pattern appears the same in the global
deterministic / ensemble guidance as it did yesterday. Mid/upper
ridging over SW and SE CONUS, with weak troughing extending from
the Ohio River Valley to southern coastal Texas. Coupled with a
moisture rich environment, this signal continues to suggest a
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Couldn`t rule out a few
heavier thunderstorms here and there. The best chance of showers
and storms will be across the southern half of the CWA. But pretty
much the whole region has at least a slight chance of rainfall
each day. The air will continue to feel like SE Texas early
summer, with high humidity and highs generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s.
Yesterday, it appeared that ridging would build towards the end of
the week. The guidance still shows that scenario. But it builds
the ridge more to our north. In other words, we may keep the daily
risk of showers and storms through the end of next week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during
the rest of the afternoon and may lead to periods of IFR-MVFR
vis/cigs. Some storms may become strong and will result in strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
Llvl wind shear and turbulence and small hail cannot be ruled out.
Winds will be VRB in and around storms, otherwise, expect S-SW
winds at around 10 KTS through early this evening. Rain chances
will decrease by early tonight and winds will turn SE and relax to
around 5 KTS for the inland sites. MVFR cigs could develop during
the overnight and early morning hours for portions of SE TX.
A somewhat stormy weather pattern will continue on Saturday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop mainly
during the late morning to late afternoon hours. Winds will
become SSW and increase to around 10 KTS again on Sat morning,
then become SE in the evening.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Generally light to moderate onshore flow should prevail through
Tuesday along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Enhanced swell today is resulting in near Small Craft conditions
offshore while also increasing the rip current risk. Swell should
decrease over the weekend. Onshore flow may increase by the middle
to latter part of next week, resulting in a corresponding increase
in the swell.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 91 75 91 / 10 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 77 91 77 91 / 10 50 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 10 30 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-237-238-300-
313-337-338-437>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self
June 2025
-
GBinGrimes
- Posts: 111
- Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
- Location: Anderson, TX
- Contact:
Presently getting absolutely blasted with a pop up, vicious T Storm. Dang.
Send it our way. We could use some backbuilding.GBinGrimes wrote: ↑Fri Jun 13, 2025 2:38 pm Presently getting absolutely blasted with a pop up, vicious T Storm. Dang.
There's a line of broken, but intense showers from Brenham to Lufkin.
Wow. This could be a setup for some real heavy rains and severe weather with this stalled outflow running up against unspoiled southerly inflow at peak heating.
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No bueno
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Up to 5” in 3 days. More to come I'm sure.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Been here 45 years and never seen such a rainy June that didn't include an Allison making landfall here.
The pictures don’t do it any justice. The sky was glowing twice as bright and golden IRL compared to the photos.
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NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 141308Z - 141708Z
Summary...A mesoscale complex has organized near Galveston and continues to propagate slowly westward toward areas near/south of Houston. These trends should continue over the next 2-4 hours or so, posing an isolated flash flood risk through 17Z/noon CDT today.
Discussion..Convection that had initially formed over along and just offshore of the Texas coast has matured and formed a westward-moving cold pool that currently extends from near Downtown Houston southward to Lake Jackson. The storms are ingesting air from a very buoyant, weakly capped pre-convective environment (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW). This moisture-rich environment and weak shear has fostered development of slow-moving, outflow dominant convection to materialize with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates recently observed near Galveston and League City.
Models/observations suggest that the westward-moving outflow associated with this complex will be the primary driver of any new/sustained convective development over the next 2-4 hours. This new development - along with areas/spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should gradually develop westward and northwestward into additional inland parts of southeast Texas. The combination of wet soils from recent rainfall and urbanized/sensitive areas near Houston Metro suggest that flash flash flooding could occur on an isolated basis through the morning as convection evolves.
Cook
Skipped right over me this time.
Damn, getting pounded down here.
Feels and looks like fall.
Looks like the Euro is back to being pretty wet again.
92 degrees.
Storms south of us yesterday, and today to the north. We could always use more. 1.3 inches for the week so far.