June 2025

[tireman4]

450
FXUS64 KHGX 131855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
155 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Another day this week, another day with shower and thunderstorm
development. Though we may have gotten through the peak of an
organized, widespread heavy rain threat, there will still be some
watching for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. Some of
the key points for tonight`s forecast:
- A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) and a
flood watch continue along the Gulf coast today. Because of
heavy rain from early Thursday morning, rain can quickly cause
flooding issues lower on the coast around Matagorda Bay. Higher
up the coast, particularly for parts of Liberty, Chambers, and
Galveston counties, the threat for new excessive rains are
highest.
- Renewed river flooding also continues after Thursday`s rains.
The Tres Palacios at Midfield is in major flood, and the
Navasota at Normangee is also forecast to reach major flood.
Other rivers above flood stage are the San Bernard (Boling) and
the Trinity (Riverside, Liberty, Moss Bluff).
- The unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend and
early next week. Rain and storm chances will be sticking with
us, though we have likely passed the peak intensity of these
daily rounds of showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The radar scope and satellite images are thankfully much less
cluttered than they were 24 hours ago! On the downside, this is
more a break than a clearing, as we should expect today (and
tomorrow...and on into the long term) to continue to see further
rounds of shower and thunderstorm development.

Around or just before dawn, we`ll likely begin to see showers
starting back up around/east of Galveston Bay, and through the
morning begin to more broadly cover coastal Southeast Texas, and
further expanding inland through the afternoon. With the most
ample moisture and instability near the coast, plus, with the
longest period of time to see rain, coastal locations will be the
most likely to see intense enough rain to produce flooding
concerns. Lower on the coast towards Matagorda Bay, we also have
the added issue of saturated soils from yesterday`s 6-14 inches of
rain meaning rain will much more quickly become runoff and
contribute to flooding. Farther up the coast, particularly around
and east of Galveston Bay, the ground may be not quite as primed,
but they are still already fairly moist and this area looks like
it has the highest chances for the most intense rains today.
Because of this, we`ve expanded the flood watch up the coast to
include all of those coastal zones. This roughly coincides with
the slight risk area for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4)from
WPC for today.

Farther inland, be it from not quite as much coverage in storms,
and/or simply less time for storms to be occurring, there is less
concern for a flash flood threat. That does not mean, though, that
there is no flooding threat. The rest of the area is still in a
marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 4) from WPC. These inland
locations could still find themselves underneath a particularly
strong storm producing high rain rates. We get rain rates too
high, over the wrong spot, and suddenly a localized flash flood
threat could emerge. But, in general, the farther inland one gets
from the Gulf, the lower the threat for flooding rains will
be...even if they don`t ever get to zero.

The one silver lining in a day like today is that the large
majority of the area is pretty unlikely to reach even seasonable
levels of heat thanks to clouds, rain, and evaporation of
rainwater on the ground. The pattern for today`s highs will
follow the opposite gradient of rain potential. Up in our
northwestern corner, we`ll see the best chances to get to around
90 degrees. In the southeast in Chambers and southern Liberty
counties, we may struggle to see anything more than the lower 80s.
And depending on rain trends, my forecast may even be a touch
too high still!

Saturday...looks a lot like a repeat of today, but tamping down
the magnitude of rainfall potential just a bit more. But we should
still look for early morning development of showers and storms
near the coast around/east of Galveston Bay, which then spreads
down the coast and inland through the day. With storm coverage and
intensity tuned down a little bit more, tomorrow does look like it
should generally be warmer than today, with highs reaching more to
around seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The Sunday-Wednesday pattern appears the same in the global
deterministic / ensemble guidance as it did yesterday. Mid/upper
ridging over SW and SE CONUS, with weak troughing extending from
the Ohio River Valley to southern coastal Texas. Coupled with a
moisture rich environment, this signal continues to suggest a
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Couldn`t rule out a few
heavier thunderstorms here and there. The best chance of showers
and storms will be across the southern half of the CWA. But pretty
much the whole region has at least a slight chance of rainfall
each day. The air will continue to feel like SE Texas early
summer, with high humidity and highs generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

Yesterday, it appeared that ridging would build towards the end of
the week. The guidance still shows that scenario. But it builds
the ridge more to our north. In other words, we may keep the daily
risk of showers and storms through the end of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during
the rest of the afternoon and may lead to periods of IFR-MVFR
vis/cigs. Some storms may become strong and will result in strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
Llvl wind shear and turbulence and small hail cannot be ruled out.
Winds will be VRB in and around storms, otherwise, expect S-SW
winds at around 10 KTS through early this evening. Rain chances
will decrease by early tonight and winds will turn SE and relax to
around 5 KTS for the inland sites. MVFR cigs could develop during
the overnight and early morning hours for portions of SE TX.

A somewhat stormy weather pattern will continue on Saturday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop mainly
during the late morning to late afternoon hours. Winds will
become SSW and increase to around 10 KTS again on Sat morning,
then become SE in the evening.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Generally light to moderate onshore flow should prevail through
Tuesday along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Enhanced swell today is resulting in near Small Craft conditions
offshore while also increasing the rip current risk. Swell should
decrease over the weekend. Onshore flow may increase by the middle
to latter part of next week, resulting in a corresponding increase
in the swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 91 75 91 / 10 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 77 91 77 91 / 10 50 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 10 30 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-237-238-300-
313-337-338-437>439.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

[GBinGrimes]

Presently getting absolutely blasted with a pop up, vicious T Storm. Dang.

[DoctorMu]

Presently getting absolutely blasted with a pop up, vicious T Storm. Dang.

Send it our way. We could use some backbuilding.

There's a line of broken, but intense showers from Brenham to Lufkin.

[jasons2k]

Wow. This could be a setup for some real heavy rains and severe weather with this stalled outflow running up against unspoiled southerly inflow at peak heating.

[Kludge]

Wow. This could be a setup for some real heavy rains and severe weather with this stalled outflow running up against unspoiled southerly inflow at peak heating.

Yeah that was a fun little 4" here in Walden in just a couple of hours. Coming your way now...

[jasons2k]

No bueno

[djmike]

Up to 5” in 3 days. More to come I'm sure.

[Kludge]

Been here 45 years and never seen such a rainy June that didn't include an Allison making landfall here.

[jasons2k]

The pictures don’t do it any justice. The sky was glowing twice as bright and golden IRL compared to the photos.

[tireman4]

Today

[jasons2k]

IMG_2192.jpeg (1.68 MiB) Viewed 397 times

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141308Z - 141708Z

Summary...A mesoscale complex has organized near Galveston and continues to propagate slowly westward toward areas near/south of Houston. These trends should continue over the next 2-4 hours or so, posing an isolated flash flood risk through 17Z/noon CDT today.

Discussion..Convection that had initially formed over along and just offshore of the Texas coast has matured and formed a westward-moving cold pool that currently extends from near Downtown Houston southward to Lake Jackson. The storms are ingesting air from a very buoyant, weakly capped pre-convective environment (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW). This moisture-rich environment and weak shear has fostered development of slow-moving, outflow dominant convection to materialize with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates recently observed near Galveston and League City.

Models/observations suggest that the westward-moving outflow associated with this complex will be the primary driver of any new/sustained convective development over the next 2-4 hours. This new development - along with areas/spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should gradually develop westward and northwestward into additional inland parts of southeast Texas. The combination of wet soils from recent rainfall and urbanized/sensitive areas near Houston Metro suggest that flash flash flooding could occur on an isolated basis through the morning as convection evolves.

Cook

[jasons2k]

Skipped right over me this time.

[Cpv17]

Damn, getting pounded down here.

[Rip76]

Feels and looks like fall.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the Euro is back to being pretty wet again.

[jasons2k]

92 degrees.

[DoctorMu]

Storms south of us yesterday, and today to the north. We could always use more. 1.3 inches for the week so far.

[Cpv17]

Storms south of us yesterday, and today to the north. We could always use more. 1.3 inches for the week so far.

6.36” here for the week.

[DoctorMu]

Storms south of us yesterday, and today to the north. We could always use more. 1.3 inches for the week so far.

6.36” here for the week.

Would have taken half of that.

Tomorrow is the last chance. 50/50 shot per NWS.

[DoctorMu]

I felt that CAPE hole. We had the donut going.

70 days until CFB season. Must. power. through.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
551 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

CONUS wide water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis
shows a distinct ridge over SW CONUS and another ridge centered
over Florida. Between the ridges lies an elongated trough axis
that extends from the Midwest down to southern coastal Texas. The
trough axis isn`t as defined over our area as it is over the
Midwest. But nonetheless, troughing does exist over SE Texas and
we have certainly seen the impacts of that today via heavy showers
and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms, especially near the coast,
have been strong to severe. But the good news is that the
atmosphere has become quite worked over. RAP surface CAPE analysis
shows this via a "CAPE hole" over SE Texas. In other words, the
RAP is interpreting our atmosphere to be on the stable side. Could
we rule out enough heating and destabilization for isolated
convective development this afternoon? No, we can`t (especially if
the 18Z HRRR has anything to say about it). But the next good
chance of showers/storms appears to arrive tomorrow. There`s some
uncertainty as to whether or not this activity will hold off until
the afternoon, or start in the morning like today. If we do have
morning storms, they are more likely to occur near our
southern/coastal counties. Once again, localized flooding along
with a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be
the primary concerns.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the long term discussion, I could go into detail about how we
shift from the SW CONUS / Florida ridge with a trough in the
middle pattern, to one that features increased ridging over E
CONUS and a general shift of our mid/upper synoptic flow pattern
to the southeast. But on the ground, you are unlikely to notice
the change. It will remain warm and quite humid. A daily risk of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the
week. With those storms will come a risk of locally heavy rainfall
along with a few stronger thunderstorms. It`s a very rinse a
repeat pattern. Some days are likely to be stormier than others,
depending on which mesoscale features and processes decide to
dominant the weather that particular day. So if you like the
rain, great news for you! If not, our profound apologies.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions mostly expected through at least late evening
followed by a mix of MVFR stratus (mainly north of the metro area)
later tonight. Will probably see some iso/sct activity begin
developing south of I-10 and offshore between 12-15z, followed by
an expansion/smattering of shra/tsra further inland in the 16-19z
timeframe. One thing we`ll have to keep an eye on is the remnants
or outflow from tonight`s storms in OK and north Tx that may sink
into our region during the day Sunday and provide a focusing
mechanism and convergent zone for additional afternoon activity.
Some of the storms today were on the heavy/strong side, and would
anticipate that possibility again Sunday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorm activity should wane
as the afternoon progresses. Winds this afternoon will be
relatively light, but should increase from the southeast this
evening into tonight. There will be another chance of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow near the coast. There is some uncertainty
as to whether or not these storms will hold off until the
afternoon or begin in the morning like today.

Despite some changes in the pattern aloft, the general pattern
that we will experience at the surface remains generally the same
through Tuesday. There will be a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms along with light to moderate onshore flow. The daily
rain/thunderstorm chances will continue until the end of the
week, while onshore flow and swell is expected to increase by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 89 74 89 / 0 50 10 30
Houston (IAH) 77 90 76 89 / 10 60 10 60
Galveston (GLS) 81 86 80 88 / 10 50 20 60

&&