July 2025

[869MB]

Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.

[user:null]

Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.

I very much think that models have a "dry bias" over Texas during summer. Even the recent NWS discussion (morning) made note of this.

[Ptarmigan]

Mesos are pretty much useless right now. This is a very tricky forecast.

The mesos forecast did not see this morning's event. These type of events are tricky to forecast.

[Cromagnum]

I just can't anymore with social media. I'm pretty well convinced the average person is functionally brain damaged with some of the BS I've seen spewed online.

[DoctorMu]

Understaffing a NWS (Houston down 44%) and reduced weather ballon launchings are impacting modeling.

The Euro may be less affected. TWC picked up on increased rain chances and amount of rain than NWS, models, mesos. The cuts are costing more in dollars and lives than any savings.

[DoctorMu]

Should mention that occurrence around the holidays doesn’t help in staffing and accuracy.

[tireman4]

Steve McCauley