Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Bluefalcon]

Yes, Alex is almost certainly a hurricane now. Recon should be there shortly to confirm. Probably a Cat 2 at landfall, possibly low-end 3. About average sized though, not the monster that Ike was. TS winds winds only 150nm from the center vs. Ike's 240+. Average size is about 130nm for the TS wind radius.

Recon is on it 1st inbound leg.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING
THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[Bluefalcon]

I think the heading WNW is generous, the plot looks almost due west.

[Rip76]

Heck due west may be generous.
How about a 268 heading

Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?

[texoz]

Recon approaching center, current lowest reading is 974mb.

[gocuse22]

Heck due west may be generous.
How about a 268 heading

Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?

i was wondering that also

...also pressure has been clocked at 974mb and falling. we should have a hurricane

[Hardcoreweather]

WOW down to 974MB

[Rip76]

Wow.

[gocuse22]

down to 972.9MB

[srainhoutx]

Possible center. Waiting on vortex message...

00:17:30Z 22.950N 94.400W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,265 meters
(~ 4,150 feet) 972.9 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg)

[texoz]

Impressive drop in pressure.

When you see that burst of convection on the eastern side of Alex over the last hour or so, this drop is pressure is not surprising.

Alex is winding up to deliver a strong punch. Probably CAT 2 at landfall, but with LOTS of rain.

[srainhoutx]

AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 75, 125, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 50, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,

[Bluefalcon]

One last shot before we loose the sun:

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[srainhoutx]

One last shot before we loose the sun:

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 00:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 0:17:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°57'N 94°23'W (22.95N 94.3833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 227 miles (365 km) to the ENE (77°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,191m (3,907ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 21° at 52kts (From the NNE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:15:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:19:30Z

[texoz]

Alex is one of the more peculiar storms I've followed. Reminds me of the Carly Simon song, "Anticipation."

[Hardcoreweather]

Alex is now a cane upgrade between now and 10


AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D

[Mr. T]

Heck due west may be generous.


Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?

very wrong

The circulation is huge, as well as a coastal trough setting up on the coastal waters.

Get ready for some rain

[Ptarmigan]

AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 75, 125, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 50, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,

Where did you get the information? Looks like Alex is already a hurricane at this point.

[Hardcoreweather]

. Hurricanes in June farly rare. Over last 150 yrs. Average about 1 a decade. But first since 1986.