Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
Bluefalcon
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:14 pm
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

wxman57 wrote:Yes, Alex is almost certainly a hurricane now. Recon should be there shortly to confirm. Probably a Cat 2 at landfall, possibly low-end 3. About average sized though, not the monster that Ike was. TS winds winds only 150nm from the center vs. Ike's 240+. Average size is about 130nm for the TS wind radius.
Recon is on it 1st inbound leg.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING
THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Bluefalcon
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:14 pm
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

I think the heading WNW is generous, the plot looks almost due west.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Heck due west may be generous.
How about a 268 heading :)

Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?
texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Recon approaching center, current lowest reading is 974mb.
User avatar
gocuse22
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:50 pm
Contact:

Rip76 wrote:Heck due west may be generous.
How about a 268 heading :)

Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?
i was wondering that also

...also pressure has been clocked at 974mb and falling. we should have a hurricane
Hardcoreweather

WOW down to 974MB
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Wow.
User avatar
gocuse22
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:50 pm
Contact:

down to 972.9MB
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Possible center. Waiting on vortex message...

00:17:30Z 22.950N 94.400W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,265 meters
(~ 4,150 feet) 972.9 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Impressive drop in pressure.

When you see that burst of convection on the eastern side of Alex over the last hour or so, this drop is pressure is not surprising.

Alex is winding up to deliver a strong punch. Probably CAT 2 at landfall, but with LOTS of rain.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 75, 125, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 50, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Bluefalcon
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:14 pm
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

One last shot before we loose the sun:

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Bluefalcon wrote:One last shot before we loose the sun:

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 00:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 0:17:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°57'N 94°23'W (22.95N 94.3833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 227 miles (365 km) to the ENE (77°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,191m (3,907ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 21° at 52kts (From the NNE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:15:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:19:30Z
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Alex is one of the more peculiar storms I've followed. Reminds me of the Carly Simon song, "Anticipation."
Hardcoreweather

Alex is now a cane upgrade between now and 10


AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D
User avatar
Mr. T
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:22 pm
Location: Kingwood
Contact:

Rip76 wrote:Heck due west may be generous.


Just wondering, if Alex stays on this path.. I see (untrained eye), minimal rainfall here in Houston.

Am I wrong here?
very wrong

The circulation is huge, as well as a coastal trough setting up on the coastal waters.

Get ready for some rain
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4162
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 75, 125, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 50, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
Where did you get the information? Looks like Alex is already a hurricane at this point.
Hardcoreweather

. Hurricanes in June farly rare. Over last 150 yrs. Average about 1 a decade. But first since 1986.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests