August 2020:

[djmike]

NHC should have played it safe and not moved the cone. Many people are going ro bed now with no worries. JMO I feel they will change it back to swla unless overnight models show Houston and Galveston.

[Kingwood36]

Everytime a model shifts and im taking a shot

[Tx2005]

That UKMET solution is pretty damn scary for the entire Houston metro.

[snowman65]

Can someone post the UKMET solution graphics or animation?

[sambucol]

That UKMET solution is pretty damn scary for the entire Houston metro.

Especially so if that verifies and people assume the track will change again.

[djmike]

CMC big shift west

To where?

[Belmer]

Everytime a model shifts and im taking a shot

You'll be drunk by sunrise then, I imagine.

[Tx2005]

Speaking for myself, if I were in a coastal county or located in a zip code in the Houston metro area that is affected by storm surge, I’d be planning to get out sooner rather than later. There is far too much model guidance that puts the Houston metro in the crosshairs along with the fact that we are only days away from landfall.

I’d want to beat the crowds because I can only imagine what the roads will look like if these Houston area solutions end up holding once Laura passes Cuba and they call for evacs tomorrow night or Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

GFS has shifted Northeast a bit.

Where was gfs before?

High Island. Less than a 100 mile shift. I see this kind of stuff as within the margin of error, particularly as models are struggling with initial conditions.

[HurricaneMike]

Where's the new CMC?

[DoctorMu]

I must say, I'm very impressed with Laura's continued organization in the face of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. The upper-level divergence over the top of Laura is insane.

Laura is a beast. We can't underestimate her potential, and keep in mind her size. 50-100 miles east or west landfall as models swing back and forth...there will be significant impacts over a large area, regardless.

[DoctorMu]

Ukmet into Matagorda this run.

Damn.

[Rip76]

UKmet

[DoctorMu]

Marco has decoupled and could be down to a swirl by morning.

[Tx2005]

Marco has decoupled and could be down to a swirl by morning.

Doesn’t that favor a more eastern track for Laura then? I don’t remember where, but I thought I read that stronger Marco = stronger Laura with more western track and vice versa.

[Scott747]

Hurricane models are coming in a little further n and e.

[Scott747]

Latest ASCAT pass does show there may be a new center taking hold between Cuba and Jamaica.

If so it's a whole new ballgame.

[Stormlover2020]

Did a new center form ?

[DoctorMu]

Did a new center form ?

Laura: Looks like a new center/eye just north of Jamaica.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/carib

[DoctorMu]

Laura has a mind of her own